Severe Thunderstorm Warning 418, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
223 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE THAT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST BY
TONIGHT. EXPECT LINGERING ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN KEEPING
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

BY MONDAY...SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
AS TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR
HIGHS. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON SOLUTION. NAM WANTS TO BRING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO THE CWA BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE RIDGE OVER THE CWA KEEPING THE AREA DRY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST NOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE CWA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.
HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH 105 DEGREES IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOONS. WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME...HOWEVER EXPECT NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TO
SEE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID TO EVEN UPPER 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA SEEING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
POPS. BY SATURDAY...FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE CWA AND WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  73  91  75  96 /  30  10  10  10
MKL  70  89  70  93 /  40  10  10  20
JBR  68  92  71  97 /  10  10  10  10
TUP  71  89  72  94 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

KRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
300 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-191000-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
300 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. VERY MOIST AIR IS ALREADY IN PLACE
AND THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S WILL BRING HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH HEAT INDICES MAY CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
426 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TORNADO          1 S LAKELAND            35.23N 89.73W
06/17/2006                   SHELBY             TN   NWS STORM SURVEY

            AN F1 TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED IN THE FRANKLIN FARMS
            SUBDIVISION LOCATED ALONG HOUSTON LEVEE ROAD JUST SOUTH
            OF HIGHWAY 64. THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR WOOD SAGE
            COVE THEN TRACKED NORTHEAST ACROSS TALL HICKORY DRIVE
            BEFORE LIFTING. ABOUT 20 HOMES WERE DAMAGED. THE TORNADO
            WAS 50 YARDS WIDE AND 500 YARDS IN LENGTH. THERE WERE NO
            INJURIES.

&&

VALLE