Severe Thunderstorm Warning 407, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
324 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT ALONG I-44 FROM ST LOUIS TO OKLAHOMA CITY. VISIBLE
SATELLITE/WSR-88D TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM AND MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MAIN CONCERNS THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
TONIGHT. ANY ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY A BIT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. 700-500 MB LAYER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK
AROUND 6 C/KM ALONG WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AS A RESULT...THINK THAT MOST IF
NOT ALL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS WITH INSTABILITY
DECREASING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. BASED ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL GO WITH SCATTERED POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS WITH
CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AND A SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL BOUNDARY
PROVIDING A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION. EVEN WITH
MUCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG AND LI/S AROUND -3...WEAK MID 700-500 MB
LAYER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL THUNDERSTORMS JUST BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES FOR JUNE WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 13C SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MIDDLE
80S.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG RANGE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA WILL FEATURE A BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
LATEST 00Z GFS/EUROPEAN RUN STILL ADVERTISING BLOCKING RIDGE
TRYING TO TRANSLATE EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN UPPER
LEVEL CANADIAN LOW MAY DIVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY KEEPING THE MID
SOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
KEEP POPS OUT ELSEWHERE IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. &&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
342 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2006

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-021100-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
342 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AS THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY.
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
555 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2006

MSZ021-012330-
YALOBUSHA MS-
555 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2006

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...YALOBUSHA COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SCOBEY AT 555 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN YALOBUSHA COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
608 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2006

MSZ016-017-024-012345-
LEE MS-ITAWAMBA MS-MONROE MS-
608 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2006

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...ITAWAMBA...LEE AND MONROE
COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER NETTLETON AT 608 PM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN ITAWAMBA...LEE AND MONROE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
NETTLETON...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

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