Severe Thunderstorm Warning 400, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
301 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER WARM...HUMID...SUMMER LIKE DAY IN PROGRESS
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH
SURFACE HEATING RESULTING IN SBCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. MID LEVEL
FLOW IS WEAK SO MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE OF THE PULSE VARIETY
WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THEIR SLOW MOVING NATURE WILL
RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLOODING. ALSO...GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY A STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
IN STORE WITH ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCD
500 MB TROF WILL PUSH INTO THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS
THE REGION. THESE FEATURES ARE WEAK BUT THEY SHOULD STILL SERVE
TO INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACRS THE
REGION BY THU AFTN INTO THU NIGHT. SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL
WINDS AND SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLD SEVERE STORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

FRIDAY...FRONT PUSHES WELL SE OF THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE MID SOUTH. PRECIP WILL LINGER ACROSS NRN MS DURING
THE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL
UNDER NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...12Z GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE MID SOUTH WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS
WITH A 500 MB TROF SETTING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE SETS UP TO THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE MID SOUTH IN DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT SOME NIGHTS
WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST AND A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  73  87  69  84 /  40  50  40  20
MKL  69  85  63  82 /  30  60  40  10
JBR  68  84  64  83 /  40  60  30  10
TUP  71  88  68  84 /  30  50  50  40

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

SJM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
307 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-011100-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
307 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
EVENING AND AS A RESULT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH SLOW-MOVING STORMS...WHICH MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING LATER THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY
CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
240 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

ARZ028-311955-
MISSISSIPPI AR-
240 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...MISSISSIPPI COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANILA AT 240 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AND NO WARNINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

PEOPLE IN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF MANILA...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
414 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

TNZ088-312200-
SHELBY TN-
414 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...SHELBY COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER ELLENDALE AT 414 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTH AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN SHELBY COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BARTLETT AND
MILLINGTON...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.