High Wind Warning 1, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1005 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2006

.UPDATE...

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER WESTERN MISSOURI TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER THE AREA SO EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 20-30 MPH...WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. ALSO LATEST VAD
PROFILES FROM KNQA (MEMPHIS RADAR) AND OKALONA SHOWING 40-60 KTS
BETWEEN 1-3KFT ABOVE SURFACE. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL TRANSLATE
TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. ALSO RECEIVING REPORTS OF TREES DOWNED
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE EXTENDED AND EXPANDED WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER ENTIRE MID- SOUTH UNTIL 6AM.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE MISSOURI LOW
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS. A
NARROW WEAK WARM SECTOR HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW INTO LOW-
MID 60S. A LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
WARM SECTOR AND CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE
MID-SOUTH WHERE DEWPOINTS STILL LOW 50S. EXPECT WARM FRONT TO
SLOWLY LIFT EAST WITH DEWPOINTS RISING. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND IN THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE A SEVERE WIND GUST TRANSFERED TO THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK (<400J/KG MUCAPE) AND MAY
HELP TO PREVENT REALLY STRONG WINDS AT 3KFT FROM GETTING TO THE
SURFACE. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS THOUGH. HAVE RAISED TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WITH STRONG MIXING AND SOUTHEAST TO EVENTUALLY SOUTH WINDS
BEHIND WARM FRONT. COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT TO OUR WEST AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH.

ALSO ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS UPWARD TO MATCH CURRENT AND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. WILL LEAVE ALL OTHER GRIDS ALONE. UPDATED
ZONES...GRIDS...ADVISORIES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE(MS)-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-
     DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-
     SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

JLH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
956 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2006

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-010000-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
956 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI HAS CAUSED SURFACE
WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED AROUND 25 MPH IN MANY AREAS. IN ADDITION...
WIND GUSTS WERE NEAR 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

RAIN MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN
WILL CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER WIND
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-SOUTH ON SUNDAY...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. AS IMPULSES MOVE
AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION...UNSTABLE AIR
WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ON BOTH
DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...AND LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.