Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Memphis, TN

000 
WGUS74 KMEG 272058
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
358 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006

TNC071-272108-
HARDIN TN-
358 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR HARDIN COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3509 8837 3500 8838 3501 8808 3512 8809

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
243 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER SUMMERLIKE DAY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER CONTINUING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS
DAYTIME HEATING...HIGH DEWPOINTS...AND A DECAYING MCV (MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX) MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MLCAPES ARE BETWEEN
3000-4000J/KG AND THIS STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAKENING
CAP WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEAK BUT THE
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORMS. THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.
THESE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY LATER THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MID SOUTH TODAY WILL SLIDE EAST OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL
TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN
ADDITION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THESE WEAK UPPER SYSTEMS COMBINED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD STILL REMAIN HIGH.

BY MID-WEEK...THE UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO AN INCREASINGLY
ZONAL FLOW AS A LARGE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE WESTERN STATES BEHIND THIS LIFTING TROUGH AND WILL SEND A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS THIS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES IT WILL
HELP TO PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR FRIDAY AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
UNDER RETURNED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLE
MCS DEVELOPMENT...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  74  92  74  91 /  10  20  10  30
MKL  69  91  70  90 /  10  30  10  30
JBR  70  92  70  89 /  10  20  10  30
TUP  70  92  71  91 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

JLH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
336 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-281045-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
336 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.