Red Flag Warning 40, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS84 KMAF 282014
RFWMAF

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
314 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS... UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AREA...MARFA PLATEAU...
DAVIS MOUNTAINS...PRESIDIO VALLEY...AND BIG BEND REGION FOR FOR
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS...20 FOOT WIND
SPEEDS OF 20 MPH OR GREATER AND HIGH FIRE DANGER...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN THIS EVENING. THE RESULTING
GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND INFLUX OF
DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...SOUTH
THROUGH THE UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AREA...MARFA
PLATEAU...DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE BIG BEND REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

NMZ114-115-TXZ057-058-074-075-079>081-258-290200-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0040.000000T0000Z-060429T0200Z/
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-
SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
314 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006 /214 PM MDT FRI APR 28 2006/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING. 

DRY AIR...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH
FIRE DANGER TO CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH
AND SPREAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY.  A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
426 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

.SHORT TERM...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD FAR WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS
MODEL SHOWS A VERY NICE DIFFLUENT PATTERN EVIDENT WITHIN THE 0-6 KM
SHEAR VECTORS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION
BY 00Z. STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THE LIFT WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY A 130 KNOT
UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS AROUND THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT
WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PROVIDE A
GOOD CHANCE OF A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SPC SWODY1 OUTLOOK LOOKS
GOOD...WITH A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER INDICATED ACROSS AREAS
EAST OF A GAIL...BIG SPRING...BIG LAKE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT RISK EAST OF A SEMINOLE...ODESSA...SANDERSON
LINE. WE HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THIS TREND IN OUR GRIDDED POP
FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LIKELY (60 PCT) SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INDICATED ACROSS THE FAR EAST... TAPERED OFF TO 10-20
PCT JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY BE EAST OF A
TATUM...HOBBS...KERMIT...FORT STOCKTON LINE BY MID AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE INCREASED
WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.
THE NAM AND GFS MODELS BOTH SHOW AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BY 18Z ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS...THE VAN HORN AREA...AND THE
MARFA PLATEAU AND BIG BEND REGION. THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS SEEM TO
BE REFLECTED WELL IN THE MOS OUTPUT FROM KGDP AND KMRF. WE THINK THE
GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. ANOTHER CONCERN
WILL BE POSSIBLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM EL PASO...RUIDOSO...AND GUADALUPE PASS EARLY THIS
MORNING INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. THE
NAM-20 MODEL DEWPOINT GRAPHICS SEEM TO HAVE THIS HANDLED WELL...AND
AS THE DRY AIR/DRYLINE SPREADS EAST THIS AFTERNOON...THINK WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE WESTERN CWA. THIS DRY AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH ANTICIPATED MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S IN THE PLAINS SHOULD YIELD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY JUST BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THE EXPECTED WINDY CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR...WE WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND EXPAND IT TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS...
THE MARFA PLATEAU...THE BIG BEND REGION...AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT IF
DEWPOINTS ARE AS LOW AS PRESENTLY INDICATED...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
COULD ALSO BE LESS THAN 15 PERCENT IN THESE LOCATIONS AS WELL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE MERGING INTO A
LINEAR MCS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CARRY HIGH END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING THEM DOWN CONSIDERABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS
THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD...
REACHING OUR NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...
LOOKING FOR DRY CONDITIONS...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMUP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A CUTOFF LOW
MEANDERS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY.  ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS THE GOING FORECAST LOOKED GOOD.  FORTUNATELY...WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLEVIATE MOST FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.  THE SAME WILL BE TRUE MONDAY...ALTHOUGH MINIMA
AFTERNOON RH/S WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AS DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AND TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL.  SINCE THERE WAS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS...ECMWF...AND ENSEMBLES WARMED
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY AS IT APPEARS A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING CUTOFF
LOW WILL STALL OUT BEFORE REACHING THE CWA.

ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD RESULT IN
SHRA/TSRA IN THESE AREAS TOO...SO RETAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE ALREADY
GOING IN THE GRIDS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE POSSIBLE BEYOND TUESDAY...BUT LEFT THESE
GRIDS ALONE DUE TO TIME CONSTRAINTS FROM WEATHER EARLIER IN THE
SHIFT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS FAR WEST TX AND
SOUTHERN NM EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE TEENS AT EL PASO...ALAMAGORDO...AND GUADALUPE PASS.
THIS DRY AIR WILL LIKELY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO PLAINS...THE UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION...THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS...AND THE BIG BEND REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE LOW
DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD RH NEAR OR BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS IN
THESE AREAS. ALSO 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE 20 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL ISSUE A
RED FLAG WARNING EFFECTIVE FROM 12 PM CDT (11 AM MDT) UNTIL 9 PM CDT
(8 PM MDT) FOR THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS...THE SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO PLAINS...THE UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION OF WEST TEXAS...THE
MARFA PLATEAU...AND THE BIG BEND REGION. RH WILL RECOVER NICELY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...BUT RH RECOVERY MAY BE POOR IN THE BIG BEND
REGION AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS
20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE VERY STRONG...EXCEPT FOR
ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS.  MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH/S WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
LOCATIONS OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA NEARLY AS LOW SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH SOME INCREASE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              80  51  75  52 /  60  40  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                75  48  77  50 /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  84  56  80  56 /  30  20  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           84  51  75  55 /  20  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  43  69  48 /   0   0  10   0
HOBBS NM                   74  49  76  49 /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   73  44  72  42 /  10   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    80  50  76  50 /  40  30  10  10
ODESSA TX                  81  49  76  52 /  40  20  10  10
WINK TX                    85  50  80  51 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES...CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...
     GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...
     AND SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM CDT FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONE...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES...BIG BEND AREA...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS
     AREA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...MARFA PLATEAU...PECOS...
     PRESIDIO VALLEY...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND
     VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM CDT FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES...BIG BEND AREA...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS
     AREA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...MARFA PLATEAU...PRESIDIO
     VALLEY...AND VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.

&&

21/67

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
457 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-291000-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
457 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006 /357 AM MDT FRI APR 28 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY EAST OF A TATUM...HOBBS...KERMIT...
FORT STOCKTON...AND SANDERSON LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...HOWEVER ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE WESTERN LOW
ROLLING PLAINS...SOUTH THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN TO THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS REGION.

DRY AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO PLAINS...VAN HORN AREA...MARFA PLATEAU...DAVIS MOUNTAINS...
AND BIG BEND REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  SINCE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS...AND FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH...CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD CAN BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND