Red Flag Warning 36, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS84 KMAF 190011
RFWMAF

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
711 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...

...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN...WESTERN LOW ROLLING
PLAINS AND TRANS PECOS REGION FOR A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WITH 20
FOOT WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR GREATER...HIGH FIRE DANGER AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 20-FOOT WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20-25 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHILE RH/S NEAR THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
BELOW 15 PERCENT.

NMZ114-TXZ258-190115-
/O.EXP.KMAF.FW.W.0035.000000T0000Z-060419T0000Z/
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
611 PM MDT TUE APR 18 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW THIS EVENING...20 FOOT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE BELOW 20 MPH.

$$

TXZ045>048-050>053-058>063-067>070-075-082-191200-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0036.060419T0300Z-060419T1200Z/
GAINES-DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-PECOS-TERRELL-
711 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY. 

A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY A
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WIND
SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FRONT...
 RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW
15 PERCENT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE AND TEMPERATURES COOL.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1110 AM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

.UPDATE...
LOWERED DEWPOINTS UP TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. RAISED WINDS SLIGHTLY IN CARLSBAD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER NOON...850MB WINDS DECREASE
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...SO LEFT AFTERNOON WIND
GRIDS ALONE.  PRODUCTS TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 424 AM CDT TUE APR 18 2006)

SHORT TERM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A STRONG TROUGH SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS PATTERN FAVORS DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW AND A
CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TODAY.
STRONG 850MB THERMAL RIDGING...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL AGAIN PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY. SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE FAR NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS
AROUND MIDNIGHT... THEN INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN
AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AS 850MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE
30-40KT RANGE.

LONG TERM...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS A SECOND LOW FORMS OFF THE CA COAST.  THIS
SECOND LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TO A
POSITION NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER BY 00Z FRIDAY.  SHORTWAVES WILL BE
EJECTED BY THIS SYSTEM AND WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A SHARP
DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CWA.  AS A RESULT...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE CWA...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS.  THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDICES FROM
-4 TO -6 AND SURFACE BASED CAPES FROM 1750 TO 2000 J/KG. THEREFORE
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NW LATE FRIDAY.  THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER DESERT SW.  SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM...THEREFORE WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE REGION.  A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
THURSDAY...BUT WILL BE HAMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.  ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON THE
TEMPERATURES.  STAYED CLOSE TO THE GFS FOR THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS AND
USED A BLEND OF GFS AND METMOS AND MEXMOS FOR THE WINDS AND DEWPOINT
GRIDS.

FIRE WEATHER...
RAWS OBSERVATIONS FROM THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AREA CONTINUE TO SHOW
VERY LOW RH/S WITH 20 FT. WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW
RH/S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND 20 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 20 MPH AS WELL. THIS ALONG WITH CONTINUED HIGH
FIRE DANGER WILL WARRANT THE CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT RED FLAG
WARNING. WE WILL ALSO OPT TO CONTINUE THE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS PECOS REGION. POOR OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHIFTING
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE REGION.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONE...
     GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY TO NOON CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...
     DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...LOVING...
     MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...REAGAN...REEVES
     COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...TERRELL...UPTON...
     WARD...AND WINKLER.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONE...
     GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

&&

74/70

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
436 AM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-190945-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
436 AM CDT TUE APR 18 2006 /336 AM MDT TUE APR 18 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY WINDS AND EXTREMELY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS... COMBINED
WITH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE RAPID GROWTH AND
SPREAD OF ANY FIRE THAT IS INITIATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF A SEMINOLE
SANDERSON LINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD ACTIVATION BE REQUIRED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND