High Wind Watch 31, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
423 AM CST SAT DEC 16 2006

.SHORT TERM...
SW MID LEVEL FLOW OF 25-30KTS ENUF TO KEEP BROAD LEE TROF IN PLACE ACRS
ERN NM/W TX WITH CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. WARMEST TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE IN PROXIMITY TO 85H THERMAL RIDGE AND WHERE
TOPOGRAPHIC FEEDBACK GREATEST (LOWEST ELEVATIONS-PECOS RIVER
VALLEY). OTHERWISE EXPECT THAT MODEST DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HAVE
CHANCE TO DEVELOP W OF TROF AND WITH MODEST MIXING. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH MUCH DRIER SFC DWPNTS SEEN IN THE GFS SFC DATA. EVEN THOUGH
MEAN LAYER 85H-5H WIND INCREASES TODAY IT DOESN/T LOOK STRONG ENUF
TO UPGRADE NPW HIGH WIND WATCH AND HAVE CANCELLED NPW. STILL
WOULDN/T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS THRU GDP PASS INCREASE VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL SPEED MAX NEARS AND WILL OPT TO
HIGHLIGHT WINDY/VERY WIND CONDITIONS. DRY ADIABATIC MIXED LAYER AND
85H TEMPS SUGGEST TODAY/S TEMPS VERY NEAR OR A DEGREE OR 2 WARMER
THAN FRI. SFC PLOT INDICATES THAT HIER LOW LEVEL MSTR HAS MADE INTO
THE CONCHO VALLEY AND EDWARD PLATEAU THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE INTO SUN A.M. WITH THE SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. THUS
COOLEST CONDITIONS SUN A.M. W IN DRIER AIR WITH MUCH WARMER LOWS E-SE
IN HIER DWPNT AIR.

.LONG TERM...
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS MAY APPROACH HIGH
WIND CRITERIA IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS BUT APPEARED MARGINAL
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO NOT WARRANT A WATCH...LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR.

THE BIG NEWS AFTER SUNDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE INTERACTION OF A
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT AND SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
NORTHERN TRACK OF THE ECMWF. PRUDENT TO NOW SHIFT THE STORM TRACK
FURTHER NORTH. THE THREAT OF FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
IN THIS SCENARIO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IT ALSO SEEMED
REASONABLE TO REDUCE POPS AND SHIFT THEM FURTHER NORTH GIVEN LATEST
REASONING AND WARM THE TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY NOW LOOKS LIKE A
WIND DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. BEYOND WEDNESDAY A COUPLE
OF SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS WILL IMPACT THE AREA. DID NOT SEE
ENOUGH SIGNAL AT THIS POINT TO MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE LESS WIND FCST TODAY EXPECT THAT 20-30KTS WINDS AT 10000 FT
MSL WILL HAVE CHANCE TO BE REALIZED THRU THE GDP MTNS TODAY...AT
LEAST ON EXPOSED RIDGES AND W-SW ORIENTED CANYONS/PASSES. SW FLOW
WILL BRING IN DRIER TODAY AND WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S MIN RH/S 13-15
PCT ARE PROBABLE BELOW 6500 FT WITH AT LEAST A HIGH FIRE DANGER
RATING. MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY DRY TO
TODAY CONTRIBUTING TO HAINES INDICES OF 5. AS SUCH HAVE OPTED TO
UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE GDP MTNS
BELOW 65000 FT AFTER 18Z. FAIR RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT MOST
AREAS...HOWEVER ON RIDGES (ABOVE THERMAL BELT) COULD BE CLOSER TO
POOR.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
     NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

&&

49/12

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