High Wind Warning 16, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS74 KMAF 122012
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
212 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006

...HIGH WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...

.STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS AND AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO
THE EAST CONTINUE TO KEEP WEST WINDS UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISH
THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING THE NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

NMZ027-TXZ258-130000-
/O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-060113T0000Z/
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUEEN...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP...
PINE SPRINGS
112 PM MST THU JAN 12 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON...

WEST WIND OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE 
UNTIL AROUND 5 PM MST. THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
300 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006

.SHORT TERM...
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE
ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THE RESULTANT
TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
GENERATE BREEZY/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BY LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL AID IN ANOTHER ABNORMALLY WARM
DAY...AND COMBINED WITH VERY DRY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS
WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS AROUND 10 PERCENT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON... PLEASE SEE BELOW FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AIR
LAGS A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A
PROGRESSIVE AND INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME WILL AFFECT THE
CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WITH NO REAL ARCTIC
AIR IN SIGHT...WE CAN EXPECT AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SADLY...WE CAN ALSO EXPECT LITTLE IF
ANY MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FRIDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. A DEEPENING
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL TRANSLATE EAST THIS
WEEKEND WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND WITH
ASSOCIATED THICKNESS WARMING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS SATURDAY AS WINDS VEER TO A SOUTHERLY OR
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE
MODEL TREND HERE IS FOR AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO INTENSIFY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGER LONGWAVE FEATURE...THEN DIG
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING EAST OVER NORTHERN SONORA AND
CHIHUAHUA ON MONDAY. THIS CONCEPTUAL MODEL ORDINARILY WOULD FAVOR
AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES HEREABOUTS...HOWEVER WE
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS OVER THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER
FLOW SIMPLY WILL NOT ALLOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
GULF THIS FAR NORTH AND WEST. FURTHERMORE...THE GFS MAY BE
OVERSTATING THE AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED EAST
OFF THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC. NEVERTHELESS...THE DYNAMICAL LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS IMPRESSIVE...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO
COOL AND MOISTEN THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
/I.E. NOT MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES/ SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN AS SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...CONSEQUENTLY ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS AND LOW RH
VALUES SHOULD SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. INCREASING SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A RESPECTABLE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL NOT
BE ALL THAT COLD...ERGO TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANOTHER TROUGH
TRANSLATES OVER THE WESTERN STATES LATE IN THE EXTENDED...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR RENASCENT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND AN CONCOMITANT INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS NEXT THURSDAY.

WE SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND GFS MOS FORECASTS THIS MORNING. WHILE THE GFS APPEARS TO
CAPTURE BEST THE DESICCATED QUALITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WE
THINK THIS MODEL TRIES TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS TOO MUCH BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT MONDAY...AND THUS WEVE LOWERED DEWPOINTS OVER GUIDANCE
A BIT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WE ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A
TOUCH UNDER GUIDANCE MONDAY AS WE FEEL EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL OFFSET DOWNSLOPE WARMING. LASTLY...WEVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTRODUCED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE SIG WX NIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE RED
FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AS OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS
QUITE POOR. IN ADDITION TO WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND SINGLE
DIGIT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS EXPECTED... STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE HAINES INDICES OF
5 AND VERY DRY FUELS /10-HR FUEL MOISTURE LESS THAN 4 PERCENT/
ARE IN PLACE. GUSTY 20-FOOT WINDS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 20 MPH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER GIVEN ABOVE CONDITIONS EVEN MARGINAL WINDS
ACROSS OTHER LOCALES /SUCH AS FORT STOCKTON/ WILL GENERATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO
HOIST A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TODAY...IMPACTING ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE BIG BEND AND
LOWER TRANS PECOS REGIONS WHERE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              74  30  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                73  31  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  77  41  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           78  39  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  37  60  39 /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   72  29  60  28 /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   67  27  59  24 /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  31  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  75  32  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    80  30  62  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CST THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES...CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY
     PLAINS...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA
     COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CST THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...
     DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...
     GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARFA
     PLATEAU...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...PRESIDIO
     VALLEY...REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...
     SCURRY...UPTON...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...
     AND WINKLER.

&&

01/70

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
312 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-122100-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
312 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006 /212 AM MST THU JAN 12 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS...AND HIGH
FIRE DANGER WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH
AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND