Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Crane County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Loving County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
216 AM CDT FRI SEP 1 2006

.SHORT TERM...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A CONTINUED INFLUX OF DEEP
LAYER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO WEST TEXAS...ENHANCED BY THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN NEAR BAJA. A COLD FRONT LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD
INTO WEST TEXAS LATER TODAY AND INTERACT WITH HIGH MOISTURE VALUES
IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS NEARLY 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE EVEN
MORE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE FAVORED AREAS FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO....THE PERMIAN BASIN...AND THE
MARFA PLATEAU/PRESIDIO VALLEY AREA...AS ENHANCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT TAPS ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO WEST TEXAS.  THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT SUGGEST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE HALF INCH LIKELY IN
PLACES.

AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE APPROACHES AND THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
TONIGHT...ANOTHER HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT ACROSS
ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS COULD LEAD EASILY TO FLASH FLOODING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS WEEKEND...COMMENCING
TONIGHT AND EXTENDING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE HOISTED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING AND ENDING SUNDAY MORNING.

NOTABLE FEATURES THIS MORNING AS PER MESOANALYSES CONTINUE TO BE
HURRICANE JOHN OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BAJA MEXICO AND A POTENT
MID/UPPER TROUGH NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. WHILE
THE OFFICIAL HURRICANE FORECAST TAKES JOHN OUT TO SEA ON A NORTH-
NORTHWEST TRACK...ANTICYCLONIC NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TOWARD WESTERN TEXAS CAN BE SEEN AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING.  MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD AS PER ISALLOBARIC ANALYSIS
AND LATEST GFS AND WRF FORECAST CONVERGENCE.  WHILE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE VALUES MAY BE GREATER FARTHER WEST THANKS TO THE CURRENT
MOTION OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE COMBINATION OF FAIRLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES /WRF POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
VALUES NEARING 1.76 INCHES BY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH IS GREATER THAN
175 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR MIDLAND/...ENHANCED LIFT BY THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WEAK WINDS PROGGED ALOFT /AS PER WRF
POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS/...AND ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS WILL
SHARPLY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE
WEEKEND.

CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS PLACE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO BE NEAR THE
02/1500 UTC TIME FRAME.  THE WRF ADVANCES THE BOUNDARY ABOUT THREE
HOURS QUICKER THAN THE GFS...HOWEVER BOTH MODELS AND HPC GUIDANCE
CONVERGE IN REDUCING ITS SOUTHWARD SPEED...KEEPING IT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.  THIS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNDAY.  THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY SATURDAY MORNING AS A DECENT SOUTHERLY 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
/GFS SHOWS 25 KNOTS BY 02/1200 UTC/ CONVERGES WITH THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ENSUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS RAIN AND CLOUDS KEEP HOT TEMPERATURES AT
BAY.  MET MOS /BASED OFF OF THE OLD NAM MODEL/ SHOWING MUCH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES THAN EXPECTED.  THEREFORE...WILL TREND TO THE GFS
/MAV/MEX/ SOLUTION IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.23 INCHES WAS SET AT MAF YESTERDAY...
SHATTERING THE OLD RECORD OF 1.42 INCHES SET ON THIS DATE IN 1994.

YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL INCREASED THE MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTAL AT MAF TO
5.92 INCHES...SETTING A RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST. THE PREVIOUS
WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD WAS IN 1934 WHEN 5.34 INCHES OF RAIN WAS
REPORTED.

THE MOST EVER ONE DAY RAINFALL AT MAF ALSO OCCURRED DURING THE MONTH
OF AUGUST...5.32 INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT MAF ON AUGUST 24TH 1934.
THE WETTEST MONTH OF RECORD IS SEPTEMBER...9.70 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN SEPTEMBER 1980.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              89  67  75  62 /  40  30  50  40
CARLSBAD NM                89  67  73  60 /  30  40  60  50
DRYDEN TX                  95  71  86  66 /  20  20  30  50
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  69  78  61 /  30  20  50  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          85  62  69  54 /  30  40  60  50
HOBBS NM                   85  67  72  61 /  40  40  60  50
MARFA TX                   81  59  72  57 /  30  20  50  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    87  67  76  63 /  40  30  50  50
ODESSA TX                  89  70  76  60 /  40  30  60  50
WINK TX                    91  70  82  66 /  40  30  60  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES...CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY
     PLAINS...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA
     COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ANDREWS...BIG BEND AREA...BORDEN...
     CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...DAWSON...ECTOR...
     GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...
     LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...
     PECOS...PRESIDIO VALLEY...REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER
     TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...TERRELL...UPTON...VAN HORN AND
     HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...AND WINKLER.

&&

01/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
541 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2006

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-011200-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
541 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2006 /441 PM MDT THU AUG 31 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW
ROLLING PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS. OTHER MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST THIS EVENING OVER THE BIG BEND AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS REGIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO. RAINFALL RATES OVER AN INCH PER HOUR WILL RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ARROYOS...DRAWS...AND OTHER LOW LYING
AREAS. URBAN AREAS RECEIVING HEAVY RAINFALL CAN EXPECT FLOODING
OF UNDERPASSES AND OTHER POORLY DRAINED AREAS. IN ADDITION...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND DEADLY LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL...SO FLOODING OF ARROYOS...DRAWS...AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WILL ELEVATED FLOWS ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE REGION. HEAVY RAINS
WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
915 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MIDLAND                 32.00N 102.08W
08/31/2006                   MIDLAND            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROADS BARRICADED ALONG SCHARBAUER CHANNEL AND MIDLAND
            DRIVE AT ANETTA.

0730 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MIDLAND                 32.00N 102.08W
08/31/2006                   MIDLAND            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            4 INCHES OF WATER AT THE INTERSECTION OF MIDLAND AND
            ILLINOIS.

0643 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 NW MIDLAND            32.07N 102.16W
08/31/2006  M0 MPH           MIDLAND            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            60 MPH WIND GUST.

0704 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MIDLAND                 32.00N 102.08W
08/31/2006                   MIDLAND            TX   PUBLIC

            MULTPILE TREES DOWN AT MIDKIFF AND LOUISIANA RESIDENCE.
            LARGEST TRUNKS 12 INCHES AND 16 INCHES IN DIAMETER. ONE
            TREE FELL ON A CAR IN THE DRIVEWAY. 300 POUND TENT-LIKE
            STRUCTURE BOLTED TO THE GROUND WAS BLOWN COMPLETELY OFF
            THE FOUNDATION.

0540 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WINK                    31.76N 103.15W
08/31/2006                   WINKLER            TX   PUBLIC

            ENTRANC EROAD TO THE AIRPORT UNDER 6 INCHES OF WATER.

0715 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W GOLDSMITH           31.98N 102.70W
08/31/2006                   ECTOR              TX   PUBLIC

            2 FEET OF WATER ON FM 181 IN NORTHERN ECTOR COUNTY.

0805 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ODESSA                  31.85N 102.37W
08/31/2006                   ECTOR              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING AT I-20 SERVICE ROAD AND GRANDVIEW. WATER
            FLOWING ACROSS THE ROAD DEEP ENOUGH TO IMPEDE TRAFFIC.

0315 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LOVINGTON               32.95N 103.35W
08/31/2006                   LEA                NM   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER ON THE ROADS IN LOVINGTON.

&&

DMARSALE