Flash Flood Warning 53, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 182231
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
530 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2006

TXC243-190045-
JEFF DAVIS-
530 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR JEFF
DAVIS COUNTY...

AT 515 PM CDT...A SPOTTER REPORTED THAT NEARLY 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAD 
FALLEN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS RESORT. 
ALSO...OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN HAD FALLEN OVER THE LAST HOUR AT THE FORT 
DAVIS NATIONAL HISTORIC SITE. 

AT 522 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
DETECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE 
CENTRAL PART OF JEFF DAVIS COUNTY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WERE LOCATED 
ALONG STATE HIGHWAY 118 NEAR THE MCDONALD OBSERVATORY. MOVEMENT WAS 
NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH.

TORRENTIAL HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF ARROYOS 
AND DRAWS...ROADS AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THESE HEAVY RAINS MAY 
TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WATER 
FLOWING DOWN THE MOUNTAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS. CAMPERS AND 
HIKERS SHOULD AVOID STREAMS OR CREEKS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF 
FLOODING IS OBSERVED.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

LAT...LON 3064 10498 3040 10383 3065 10344 3110 10411

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
219 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH THE
FORECAST.  THETA E RIDGE REMAINS STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO DOWN ACROSS CULBERSON AND JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES... USUAL
AFTERNOON STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND ARE
SPREADING NORTH AND SOUTH.  EXPECT TO SEE THIS COVERAGE INCREASE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS... WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS WEST DECREASING
EASTWARD TO ISOLATED POPS OVER CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEAR NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS LATE DURING THE DAY... BUT SHOULD ONLY BARELY MAKE IT
INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA BY EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD.
EXPECT TEMPS SATURDAY TO CONTINUE TO RECOVER FROM RECENT RAINFALL
AND TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER LOWS NORTH ON SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL
ALSO RAISE OVERNIGHT POPS.

MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS LOW OVER THE GULF.  ETA STILL BRINGS
UPPER LOW OFF THE GULF AND ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND LOWER TRANS PECOS
SUNDAY.  AVN INITIALIZED WITH THE LOW BUT WASHES IT OUT BY THE TIME
IT REACHES THE TEXAS COAST.  ETA HAS BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE ALL WEEK... BUT IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH IT AND IT DOES
MATCH UP FAIRLY WELL WITH CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF.  WILL START TO FACTOR IN THE POSSIBILITY OF THE LOW COMING OVER
THE AREA AND INCREASE POPS SOUTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.  LATER
SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADJUST.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST EXPECT CENTER OF HIGH TO SHIFT
WESTWARD WITH TEMPS WARMING AND POPS DECREASING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              71  95  71  93 /  10  10  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                68  92  68  91 /  40  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  72  95  72  95 /  10  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  93  70  93 /  20  10  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  85  65  83 /  50  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   68  91  67  93 /  30  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   58  85  59  85 /  40  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  95  71  93 /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  70  95  71  93 /  20  10  20  10
WINK TX                    72 102  73 100 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

72

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
229 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2006

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-191930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
229 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2006 /129 PM MDT FRI AUG 18 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND WEST OF A LAMESA TO FORT
STOCKTON TO BIG BEND LINE. SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. WITH THESE HEAVY RAINS...MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS SUCH AS CREEKS...ARROYOS...DRAWS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND