Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 200620
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
115 AM CDT THU APR 20 2006

TXC335-200845-
MITCHELL TX-
115 AM CDT THU APR 20 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM CDT FOR
MITCHELL COUNTY...

AT 113 AM CDT...NO REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED... 
HOWEVER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE 
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.  THESE STORMS 
WERE LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY FROM NEAR COLORADO 
CITY TO NEAR LORAINE.  OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO EXTREME 
NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY WEST OF CUTHBURT.  THESE STORMS WERE 
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS... STREETS AND UNDERPASSES...LOW
WATER CROSSINGS... AND LOW LYING FARMLAND IS LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3250 10117 3210 10116 3210 10068 3251 10067

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
911 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006

.UPDATE...
UPDATING PRODUCTS AS RESOURCES ALLOW FOR WS214.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 755 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006)

UPDATE...
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS STARTED OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN IN RESPONSE
TO A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS.
MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT WHETHER THIS IS IT OR IF WELL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME WELL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING IN KEEPING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

WEVE INCREASED POP CHANCES UP THROUGH 06Z AND ADJUSTED QPF AND WX
ELEMENTS ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.  TEXT PRODUCTS
ROLLING OUT...DIGITAL PRODUCTS TO FOLLOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 148 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006)

SHORT TERM...
CURRENT POSITION OF UPPER LOW IS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING.  ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND HEIGHT
FALLS ARE PROJECTED TO PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.  THIS...COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL INCREASE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND SUBSEQUENT LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA...AIDING IN LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.  COLD FRONT HAS ADVANCED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE BIG BEND
THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME MORE STATIONARY WITH TIME.  EARLY THIS
EVENING...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE.  LATER THIS EVENING /AFTER
MIDNIGHT/...BOTH THE GFS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BREAK OUT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN
LATE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE STABLE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LAYER. NAM POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODERATE
MUCAPE VALUES ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO SUPPORT
POSSIBLE CELL ROTATION /BOTH AIDING IN HAIL PRODUCTION/. 850 MB
THETA-E FIELDS AND LLJ SURGE MOISTURE NORTH AND WESTWARD
OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KEEP ACTIVITY GOING
THROUGH MORNING. THEREFORE... HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS FOR THE PERIOD
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY MODIFIED BY
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE NO OTHER MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS.

LONG TERM...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD DEAL OF LIFT TO THE REGION.
A DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH AREAS WEST OF
THE PECOS ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE DRYLINE AND AREAS EAST OF THE PECOS
ON THE MOIST SIDE WITH EASTERLY WINDS BRINGING HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY EAST
OF THE DRYLINE...THOUGH THERE ARE VERY LOW ORDER POPS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE DRYLINE.

THE DRYLINE WILL SET UP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS...AND AS THE SUN RISES AND TEMPERATURES WARM...IT WILL
PROPAGATE TO THE EAST SLOWLY.  BY THE AFTERNOON IT WILL HAVE PROPAGATED
TO ROUGHLY A SEMINOLE TO CRANE TO SANDERSON LINE.  EAST OF THAT
LINE... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIFT ALONG BOTH THE DRYLINE AND THE
COLD FRONT LIFTING BACK OUT OF THE AREA...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NEAR 9 DEGREES/KM WILL COMBINE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH NEGATIVE LI/S...850 MB BASED CAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF NEAR 70 KTS...IT IS LIKELY THAT AT
LEAST A HANDFUL OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THESE THREATS WILL BE DETAILED IN THIS
AFTERNOON/S HWO.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  THIS WILL LIMIT
OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOMEWHAT FOR FRIDAY.  POP GRIDS LOOKED IN
LINE WITH CURRENT THINKING...SO LEFT THEM AS IS.  ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE AREA.  BY MONDAY...WE DRY OUT AGAIN AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL RETURN.

FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE DRYLINE SURGES EASTWARD ON THURSDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP
BEHIND THE DRYLINE.  WITH THE DRIER AIR EXPECTED BEHIND THE DRYLINE
AND CONTINUED HIGH FIRE DANGER...WE/VE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  MID SHIFT MAY UPGRADE THIS TO A RED FLAG WARNING OVERNIGHT
IF CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THIS SCENARIO.  IN
ADDITION...AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
DRYLINE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING.  THESE
AREAS WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE RIGHT ALONG THE PECOS RIVER WHERE THERE
WILL BE DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE.  THIS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FWF
AS WELL.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THURSDAY TO 10 PM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY
     PLAINS...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA
     COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THURSDAY TO 10 PM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...BIG BEND AREA...DAVIS/APACHE
     MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...MARFA PLATEAU...
     PECOS...PRESIDIO VALLEY...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS
     PECOS...TERRELL...AND VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THURSDAY TO 10 PM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY
     PLAINS...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA
     COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THURSDAY TO 10 PM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...BIG BEND AREA...DAVIS/APACHE
     MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...MARFA PLATEAU...
     PECOS...PRESIDIO VALLEY...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS
     PECOS...TERRELL...AND VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.

&&

70/70

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
823 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-201200-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
823 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006 /723 PM MDT WED APR 19 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS WESTWARD INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THE MOST RECENT
UPDATES... WATCHES... AND WARNINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN. THESE
STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

MEANWHILE...DRY AIR WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER...COUPLED WITH GUSTY
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREATS... PROMOTING EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. STAY TUNED TO
THE LATEST STATEMENTS FOR UPDATES TO THIS SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND