Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 160746
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
244 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2006

NMC015-160754-
EDDY-
144 AM MDT WED AUG 16 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 145 AM MDT FOR EASTERN EDDY
COUNTY...

AT 144 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE HEAVY RAIN THAT PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND
NO LONGER APPEARS CAPABLE OF CAUSING FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER 
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH 
REMAINS IN EFFECT AND WARNINGS MAY STILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS 
MORNING.

LAT...LON 3204 10441 3204 10410 3204 10374 3249 10373
      3254 10382 3279 10382 3279 10442

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
246 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AREA ATTM.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SUSTAIN THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PROVIDING LIFT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
INITIATE.  RUC80 850MB COMPUTED LI/S FOR 15/18Z INDICATE THAT
INSTABILITY REMAINS WITH LI/S FROM 1 TO -4.  THE GRIDDED GFS AND THE
MAVMOS GUIDANCE SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION
BOTH YESTERDAY AND TODAY.  THUS HAVE GONE WITH A GFS SOLUTION WITH
SOME HELP FROM THE MAVMOS. GIVEN THE HIGHER THREAT OF MORE RAIN
TODAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL AGAIN BE ADDRESSED IN THIS
AFTERNOON/S HWO.

.LONG TERM...
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
LOWER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND WRF MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA/FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH PWATS ON THE
ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2 ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS WILL KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT IN PLACE...THUS WE
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING
WESTWARD BACK INTO EASTERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...VERSUS THE WRF WHICH PUSHES
THE MOISTURE PLUME A BIT FARTHER WEST. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION...WITH 20-30 PCT POPS
PUSHED INTO THE FAR EASTERN CWA. WENT TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS MODEL IS PERSISTENT IN KEEPING AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED SOMEWHAT BY THE WRF SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH IT
HAS THE SHEAR AXIS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILT FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION...WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT EDDY COUNTY PLAINS. ALSO
TRENDED QPF AND SKY GRIDS UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE LESSER ACROSS FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS...WHICH MAY FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL
BE CENTERED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

RAIN CHANCES MAY BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS HINTS AT A COLD FRONT SLIDING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...FOLLOWED FAIRLY
CLOSE TO MEX MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES...WINDS...AND DEWPOINTS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              71  91  71  94 /  50  20  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                68  86  69  91 /  60  60  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  74  92  71  94 /  60  30  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           70  90  71  94 /  60  40  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  78  63  84 /  70  60  50  30
HOBBS NM                   68  89  69  93 /  50  50  30  30
MARFA TX                   64  79  60  83 /  70  60  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  90  71  93 /  50  40  20  20
ODESSA TX                  70  91  71  94 /  50  40  30  20
WINK TX                    73  92  73  96 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES...EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF
     EDDY COUNTY.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES...BIG BEND AREA...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...
     GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...PECOS...
     PRESIDIO VALLEY...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN
     HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...AND WARD.

&&

74/21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
216 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-161915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
216 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006 /116 PM MDT TUE AUG 15 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY
SINCE HEAVY RAINS HAVE FALLEN IN MANY LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREFORE...A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS TODAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS.  GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL. PERSONS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST STATEMENTS...
ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLE WATCHES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TODAY MAINLY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
906 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S HOPE                32.79N 104.74W
08/15/2006                   EDDY               NM   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ARMSTRONG ROAD LOCATED TWO MILES SOUTH OF HOPE REMAINS
            IMPASSABLE WITH 5 FEET OF STANDING WATER. U.S. 82 ALSO
            HAD WATER RUNNING OVER IT AT THE TIME OF THE REPORT.
            SEVERAL DRILLING RIGS HAVE BEEN EVACUATED.

0553 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CARLSBAD                32.40N 104.24W
08/15/2006                   EDDY               NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF FLOWING WATER ALONG CITY STREETS ON
            THE SOUTH SIDE OF TOWN. TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED .70
            INCHES OF RAIN IN 22 MINUTES. STORM FORMED DIRECTLY
            OVERHEAD THE CITY.

0815 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ODESSA                  31.85N 102.37W
08/15/2006                   ECTOR              TX   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL STREETS WERE FLOODED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF TOWN
            INCLUDING FAIRLANE ROAD WITH AT LEAST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING
            WATER.

0824 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CRANE                   31.39N 102.35W
08/15/2006                   CRANE              TX   PUBLIC

            AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF WATER HAS FLOODED GASTON STREET IN
            THE CITY OF CRANE.

&&

02

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
930 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MONAHANS                31.60N 102.89W
08/15/2006                   WARD               TX   PUBLIC

            UP TO A FOOT OF WATER WAS REPORTED ALONG SOME CITY
            STREETS DUE TO A THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED DIRECTLY
            OVERHEAD.

0910 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MIDLAND                 32.00N 102.08W
08/15/2006                   MIDLAND            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SIX TO EIGHT INCHES OF WATER WAS OBSERVED FLOWING NEAR
            THE INTERSECTION OF HAINES AND WARD IN THE CITY OF
            MIDLAND.

0925 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 W MIDLAND             32.00N 102.15W
08/15/2006                   MIDLAND            TX   PUBLIC

            AT LEAST ONE FOOT OF WATER WAS OBSERVED NEAR LOW-WATER
            CROSSINGS ALONG BUSINESS 20/HIGHWAY 80 BETWEEN MIDLAND
            AND ODESSA.

&&

02

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
945 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ANDREWS                 32.32N 102.55W
08/15/2006                   ANDREWS            TX   PUBLIC

            FIVE TO TEN INCHES OF FLOWING WATER WAS REPORTED ALONG
            THE NORTH END OF MAIN STREET AS A RESULT OF HEAVY
            THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

02