Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 140556
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1253 AM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

TXC115-140800-
DAWSON-
1253 AM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN DAWSON COUNTY...

AT 1251 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR MOVING NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH  
OVER NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN DAWSON COUNTY.  

THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN DAWSON 
COUNTY.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODING.  ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE TO 
HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3295 10193 3279 10199 3273 10170 3295 10169

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
233 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006

.SHORT TERM...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TUTT LOW SLOWLY PUSHING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE BETWEEN DEL RIO AND LAREDO.
OTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WERE ALSO NOTED ALONG THE RED RIVER NEAR
WICHITA FALLS...AND ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO IN
THE VICINITY OF EL PASO. PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE
LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION. A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GUADALUPE AND
DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TEXAS. ALL OF
THESE FEATURES SHOULD COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD BE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE MID LEVEL
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWARD INTO
THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...POSSIBLY LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SKIES TO REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT
WITH THE EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD REMAIN WARM...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FROM WHAT
HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. OVERALL ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDDED DATABASE.

.LONG TERM...
LONG TERM CONCERNS ARE FOCUSED ON THE EARLY PART OF THE PACKAGE AS
ABUNDANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA
THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE NORTHERN CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS
IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TAKING THIS BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH INTO THE
PERMIAN BASIN MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THIS BOUNDARY UP
OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. HAVE PRETTY MUCH SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
HERE AS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL FRONTAL EVOLUTION IS HIGH AS
THIS EVOLUTION WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CONVECTIVELY-GENERATED
COLD POOLS. AS A RESULT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER
NORTHWESTERN ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE MOISTURE...LIFT...AND
FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE GREATEST. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO STANDS THE BEST CHANCES OF EXCESSIVE RAINS
OVER THE NEXT 24-48H. MEANWHILE...THE TUTT LOW OVER NORTHERN
COAHUILA WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ABOUT OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. THE EVENTUAL PATH OF THIS LOW WILL DEPEND ON THE DEGREE THAT
THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE TRACK OF
ANOTHER TUTT LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE WEST OVER THE GULF
THIS WEEK. FOR NOW WE EXPECT THE TUTT LOWS IMPACT TO BE MINIMAL
BUT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DID INCREASE POPS A BIT OVER NORTHWESTERN ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
AND SLIGHTLY OVER WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MAYBE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MORNING LOWS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              73  95  71  93 /  20  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                72  93  70  90 /  40  50  50  50
DRYDEN TX                  74  97  74  94 /  10  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  95  71  94 /  20  30  40  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  86  65  83 /  40  60  50  50
HOBBS NM                   69  92  70  90 /  30  50  50  30
MARFA TX                   61  87  61  85 /  40  50  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  95  72  93 /  20  20  30  20
ODESSA TX                  74  95  72  94 /  20  20  30  20
WINK TX                    75 100  73  97 /  30  40  40  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

21/70

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
213 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-141915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
213 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006 /113 PM MDT SUN AUG 13 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH RATES OF OVER 1 INCH
PER HOUR POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ARROYOS...DRAWS AND OTHER
LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR UNDERNEATH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A COLD FRONT COULD MOVE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY
OR EARLY TUESDAY.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL...WOULD LIKELY RESULT ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.  LOCATIONS THAT WOULD BE AFFECTED BY ANY
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1026 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FORT STOCKTON           30.89N 102.89W
08/13/2006                   PECOS              TX   PUBLIC

            WAIST DEEP WATER ACROSS A LOW-WATER CROSSING IN SOUTH
            FORT STOCKTON NEAR MUSKINGUM LANE. THIS WAS HAMPERING
            CLEAN-UP RELIEF SINCE POWER LINES WERE DOWN FROM WIND
            DAMAGE FROM SAME STORM.

1005 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ODESSA                  31.85N 102.37W
08/13/2006                   ECTOR              TX   PUBLIC

            AT LEAST THREE FEET OF WATER IS FLOWING ACROSS THE
            200-400 BLOCK OF MUSKINGUM AVENUE.

1006 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ODESSA                  31.85N 102.37W
08/13/2006                   ECTOR              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO APARTMENT BUILDINGS HAVE BEEN EVACUATED DUE TO SEVERE
            FLOODING ACROSS TOWN. ONE COMPLEX IS LOCATED ON THE 1100
            BLOCK OF UNIVERSITY DRIVE. THE OTHER COMPLEX IS LOCATED
            ALONG THE 800 BLOCK OF KELLY. SHELTERS ARE BEING SET UP.
            ROADS ARE BEING CLOSED ALL ACROSS ODESSA DUE TO THE
            SEVERE NATURE OF THE FLOODING.

&&

02