Tornado Warning 20, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
847 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION FINALLY MAKING IT INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BUT SO FAR IT
REMAINS OUT OF THE LITTLE ROCK CWA BUT FEAR THIS WILL NOT BE CASE
MUCH LONGER. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON LOCATION AND
TRACK OF THE CELLS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. DEW POINT AT TULSA DROPPED FROM 61 TO 21 IN ONE HOUR AS
CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR SWEEPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTUAL COLD
AIR IS LAGGING SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

WHILE TREND OF THE CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY ON THE DOWNWARD SIDE AT
THE TIME BEING...CONVECTION NOW FIRING UP ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE FRONT OVER EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. ALL CONVECTION IS MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.

MODELS CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE BOUNDARY INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND SWEEP IT THROUGH THE STATE
BY SUNRISE. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A REAL GOOD HANDLE ON
IT AND ONLY SOME TWEAKING OF THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
TRENDS IS NEEDED TONIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 621 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006/

AVIATION...
STORMS CONTINUING TO FIRE ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SOME HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN
WESTERN/NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN SHOW WILL BE
WITH THE PRECIP CURRENTLY OUT IN OKLAHOMA. HAVE ALLOWED FOR
VCTS/TEMPO THUNDER AT HRO FROM 00-09Z...AND FROM HOT AND LIT FROM
03-09Z...AND FINALLY PBF FROM 04-10Z. INCRSD GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS AS HIGH AS 10-15 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN GRADIENT
WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.

AS FAR AS CIGS GO...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR THROUGH MID-EVENING...THEN
MVFR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. IFR CONDS
COULD OCCUR WITH ONSET OF PRECIP INITIALLY.

DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES CENTRAL ARKANSAS. RE-DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE WITH THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...AND AS SUCH KEPT PROB30 TSRA AT PBF AND LIT.

00Z TERMINALS HAVE BEEN TRANSMITTED.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH POSTED NORTH AND
WEST OF WALDRON/MORRILTON/BATESVILLE UNTIL 6 PM. STORMS HAVE
TENDED TO BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...WITH MAINLY HAILERS NOTED. THAT
WILL NOT BE THE CASE TONIGHT.

STORM SYSTEM/FRONT STILL IN PLAINS...WITH NEW CELLS POPPING UP
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING...WITH
TORNADOES/VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE POSTED IN THE WEST TOWARD EVENING AS THE STORMS APPROACH.

OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED STORMS WILL RACE ACROSS THE STATE...WITH
SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY NORTH/WEST OF LITTLE ROCK. BY
MORNING...STORMS WILL BE GONE...WITH BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION.

SYSTEM/FRONT STILL LINGERING ACROSS ARKANSAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS REDEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY FROM LITTLE ROCK EASTWARD.

FRONT FINALLY EXITING TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND COOLER/DRIER AIR THIS WEEKEND. (46)

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD FOR MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY. CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY. THEN WENT WITH DRY WEATHER AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. (58)

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ003-ARZ004-ARZ005-
ARZ006-ARZ007-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-ARZ016-ARZ021-ARZ022-
ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ037-
ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-ARZ046-
ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-
ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
420 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-071000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
420 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND TRACKED INTO
AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF LITTLE ROCK. THERE WAS SOME SPOTTY
LARGE HAIL IN PORTIONS OF JOHNSON...NEWTON AND SEARCY COUNTIES.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE STORMS HAD WEAKENED.

MEANWHILE...NEW STORMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WAS
IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM AND STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS.
THESE NEW STORMS WILL ARRIVE IN WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH SEVERE WEATHER HIGHLY LIKELY.

THERE A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH
A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN MOST AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
DEQUEEN...LITTLE ROCK AND MOUNTAIN HOME. FARTHER EAST...THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WILL TEND
TO BE SCATTERED...BUT WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT STRONG ROTATION. WINDS
WILL TURN WITH HEIGHT THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE STORMS
TO ROTATE. ALSO...WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL CREATE A LOT OF INSTABILITY...
WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS INTO THE STORMS. THESE UPDRAFTS WILL SUSPEND
NEWLY FORMED HAILSTONES...ALLOWING THE HAIL TO GROW LARGER IN COLD
AIR ALOFT.

GIVEN THE CONDITIONS...TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST
OF LITTLE ROCK.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE LINES...AND WILL MOVE
QUICKLY EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN GENERAL...THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON AND THE STORMS MOVE
FARTHER TO THE EAST.

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION. PEOPLE ACROSS
ARKANSAS ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES. MONITOR
LATER BULLETINS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO ACT IF SEVERE STORMS APPROACH.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE EASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS
ON FRIDAY...AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH THE
STATE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS. THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE STORMS
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY EVENING.

QUIET WEATHER SHOULD BE NOTED IN ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

46