Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
410 AM CST THU MAR 9 2006

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
CURRENT BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST FAST AS
UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. SOME OF THE STRONG WINDS WILL MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE...SO WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6
PM TONIGHT. UPPER LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT...
SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER
FOR FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE
WEEK END.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LAST IN THE SERIES OF UPPER SYSTEMS WL BE WORKING ACRS THE FA ON
MON. HAVE CONTD WITH SCTD POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF ASSOCD CDFNT ATTM
AS TIMING ISSUES STILL A CONCERN. HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WL BLD
INTO AR FOR TUE AND WED. THE HIGH WL SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY LATE WED
AND WED NGT. ANOTHER LOW PRES SYS IS PROGGED TO DVLP OVR THE PLAINS
STATES...ALLOWING SLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE REGION. ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO GOING TEMP FCST THRU THE PD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  44  70  57 /  90  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       58  39  66  54 /  90  20  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  44  72  58 /  90  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     71  47  72  59 /  90  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  39  66  54 /  90  20  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     73  48  72  59 /  90  10  10  20
SEARCY AR         69  43  68  56 /  90  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      68  44  72  57 /  90  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  42  68  55 /  90  20  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ003-ARZ004-ARZ005-
ARZ006-ARZ007-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-ARZ016-ARZ021-ARZ022-
ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ037-
ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-ARZ046-
ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-
ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.

&&

SHORT TERM...32 / LONG TERM...44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CST THU MAR 9 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-101100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CST THU MAR 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TODAY...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REST OF THE STATE.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEVERAL LINES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS RAPIDLY
EASTWARD THROUGH ARKANSAS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY
WITH THESE LINES OF STORMS.

THE LINES OF STORMS MAY BULGE FORWARD IN PLACES...WITH SEVERAL
BOWING SEGMENTS LIKELY. WINDS TEND TO POOL AND ROTATE ON THE ENDS OF
EACH SEGMENT...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES OFTEN SPAWNED. ALSO...SHOULD
THERE BE ANY STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE...THEY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
ROTATE AND COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
THE STATE TO THE EAST WITH THE FRONT SOON TO FOLLOW. THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL MOVE OVER WARMER CONDITIONS NEAR THE
GROUND...WITH A FEW MORE STORMS POPPING UP. THESE STORMS COULD
AFFECT NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS AND COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY EACH SYSTEM. TIMING OF EACH SYSTEM IS DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY OF
THESE SYSTEMS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NATURAL STATE FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE AREA. AFTER TODAY...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

PEOPLE IN ARKANSAS ARE URGED TO REVIEW THEIR SEVERE WEATHER RULES
AND MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BULLETINS FOR ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS. USE OF NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR TELEVISIONS WITH ALERT
FEATURES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL COME IN HANDY TODAY.

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
720 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MORTON                  35.25N 91.10W
03/09/2006                   WOODRUFF           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POSSIBLE TORNADO AT MORTON. TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
            ACROSS HWY 64 AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDING.

&&
CORRECTED TIME FOR MORTON REPORT TO 655 AM.

58

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
846 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 AM     HAIL             DANVILLE                35.05N 93.39W
03/09/2006  M1.75 INCH       YELL               AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0814 AM     TSTM WND DMG     KIRBY                   34.25N 93.63W
03/09/2006                   PIKE               AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOFS OFF BARNS

&&

219

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
855 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 AM     HAIL             CRYSTAL SPRINGS         34.52N 93.33W
03/09/2006  M0.75 INCH       GARLAND            AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0814 AM     TSTM WND DMG     KIRBY                   34.25N 93.63W
03/09/2006                   PIKE               AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CHICKEN HOUSES WITH ROOFS OFF AND TREES DOWN

&&

219

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
900 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     HAIL             ALPINE                  34.22N 93.38W
03/09/2006  M0.75 INCH       CLARK              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

219

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