Severe Thunderstorm Warning 596, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
933 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

.UPDATE...
FORECASTS UPDATED ALREADY TO INCLUDE WATCH NUMBER 850. HIGHER DEW
POINTS CONTINUE SURGING NORTH AS WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 450 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006/

UPDATE...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS IN THE EARLY HOURS OF
THE FORECAST. FOG SHOULD BE ENDING LATER AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 248 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006/

SHORT TERM....TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
WATER VAPOR CHANNEL INDICATES THAT WELL DEFINED ENERGY IS NOW
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. RECENT SUBJECTIVE
SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE THAT LOW PRESSURE IS ORGANIZING OVER
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD...REACHING WESTERN TENNESSEE BY 00Z/16. AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST...A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...TO SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AS A STRONG LOW
LEVEL WARM PATTERN DEVELOPS. FORECAST VERTICAL WIND PROFILES
STRONGLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...WILL BE KEY TO WHETHER SURFACE BASED
SUPERCELLS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE MORNING
WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT MIXING OF STRONGER
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS ...AND THEREFORE EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BE BELOW TRUE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN MAY END AS
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH.

LONG TERM....FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE EAST
AND AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL PROVIDE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINLY NORTH
ARKANSAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1010 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-151100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL-
1010 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MURFREESBORO TO PINE BLUFF. FARTHER
NORTH...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

LATE TUESDAY EVENING...A STORM SYSTEM WAS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FARTHER EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
THE FRONT SEPARATED COOL AIR TO ITS NORTH FROM MUCH WARMER
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AROUND THE
FRONT...WITH SOME SMALL HAIL IN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE.

OVERNIGHT...THE SYSTEM IN OKLAHOMA WILL TRACK INTO ARKANSAS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH PENNY
SIZE HAIL OR LARGER IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE FARTHER SOUTH...OR FROM
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO THE GULF COAST. IT IS IN THESE AREAS WHERE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY...WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TURN WITH HEIGHT...WHICH WILL CAUSE STORMS TO ROTATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN ARKANSAS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEPART TO THE
EAST...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. COLDER AIR
WILL BE NOTED...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
931 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             CABOT                   34.97N 92.02W
11/14/2006  E0.50 INCH       LONOKE             AR   PUBLIC

&&

TBRAY