Severe Thunderstorm Warning 577, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
259 PM CDT WED SEP 27 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY FROM FORT
SMITH TO JASPER. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH.

WENT WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ABOUT
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL GIVEN FAIRLY COLD AIR
ALOFT/FAIRLY DRY AIR ALOFT AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING. SOUNDING AT
LITTLE ROCK HAD -14C AT 500 MB THIS MORNING.

DYNAMICS WITH FRONT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH SOME WEAKENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED/LESS INTENSE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING.

DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW FRONT ON THURSDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. COLDEST AIR OF THE YOUNG FALL SEASON WILL BE HERE
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S.

TOWARD THE WEEKEND...LARGE TROUGH ALOFT WILL HEAD INTO OHIO
VALLEY...WITH RIDGING OVER ARKANSAS. WILL CATCH TAIL END OF FRONT
SWINGING THROUGH EASTERN UNITED STATES...BUT FRONT WILL DO LITTLE
BUT INCREASE CLOUDS. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH A WARMING
TREND.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. BY MONDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS BUT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP ANY MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE AREA...THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY. THE
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A WARMUP AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  59  70  45  72 /  40  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       50  63  39  69 /  40  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    57  70  45  71 /  30  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     60  72  45  71 /  30  20   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  51  63  39  71 /  40  10   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     60  75  45  73 /  30  20   0  10
SEARCY AR         56  67  44  71 /  50  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      52  69  42  74 /  30  10   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  66  41  71 /  40  10   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1220 PM CDT WED SEP 27 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-281000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1220 PM CDT WED SEP 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS TO THE
NORTH OF CLARKSVILLE...MORRILTON...SEARCY AND AUGUSTA.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS STATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WAS ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN ARKANSAS. THE PRECIPITATION WAS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO
A SYSTEM ALOFT FROM OKLAHOMA. AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH...THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF LITTLE
ROCK.

SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
PENNY SIZE HAIL OR LARGER THE MAIN CONCERN. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

46