Severe Thunderstorm Warning 421, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. COLD FRONT IS LOCATED NEAR THE
ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER AND MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH. PRECIPITATION AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH. MOST PRECIP WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...SLOWLY. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN FOR MOST AREAS. ISSUED HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTH OF
LITTLE ROCK FOR FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING
105 TO 110 DEGREES. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT
TO APPROACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON TUESDAY. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...BEFORE PARKING ITSELF OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. LOOKING AT WIDELY SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THROUGHOUT PERIOD WITH THE
PASSING OF THIS FRONT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  98  71  93 /  20  40  40  30
HARRISON AR       74  92  68  90 /  20  40  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  99  71  94 /  10  40  40  30
PINE BLUFF AR     78  99  72  94 /  20  30  30  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  74  92  68  90 /  20  40  30  20
MONTICELLO AR     78 100  74  94 /  20  30  30  30
SEARCY AR         77  96  70  92 /  20  40  40  30
MOUNT IDA AR      78  99  71  94 /  10  40  40  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   76  97  70  92 /  20  40  40  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ016-ARZ021-ARZ022-
ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ037-
ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-ARZ046-
ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-
ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ052-ARZ053-
ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-
ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.

&&

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...55/219

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
245 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-111000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
245 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. WITH HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN PLACE...HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL CLIMB
TO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. FOR THIS REASON...A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
POSTED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CLARKSVILLE TO CLINTON TO
BATESVILLE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HOT
WEATHER DURING THE LAST WEEK OR SO...WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
OUT OF ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
IT MOVES INTO ARKANSAS. SOME STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 80 MPH BEING THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG STORMS
THAT DEVELOP. STRONG STORMS THAT OCCUR COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATE FRIDAY OR
EARLY SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH WIND AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
CONCERN.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE GREATEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR STRONG
STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM MENA TO PINE BLUFF...TO
BRINKLEY.

ON SUNDAY..THE FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION. THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE PROBABILITY OF ANY ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

219

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
250 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

ARZ004-005-102045-
BAXTER-MARION-
250 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MARION AND BAXTER COUNTIES...

AT 245 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
JUST NORTH OF YELLVILLE...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
FLIPPIN...GASSVILLE...BUFORD...MOUNTAIN HOME AND SALESVILLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. BOATERS ON
AREA LAKES SHOULD HEAD FOR SAFETY IMMEDIATELY.

44