Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
245 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
LOW CLOUDS CONTD TO ADVECT NWD INTO THIS AFTN AND COVER JUST ABT ALL
EXCEPT FAR NRN AR ATTM. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BREAK UP THIS AFTN
THANKS TO LOW LVL INVERSION SET UP ACRS THE REGION. EVEN WITH THE
CLOUDS...BREEZY SLY WINDS HAVE HELPED TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S
AND 60S TODAY. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS AOA 50F HAVE WORKED AS FAR N AS
CNTRL AR AT MID AFTN. LOW LVL RH ADVECTION IS BEING HELD UP SOMEWHAT
OVR WRN AR DUE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALL OF THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD
OF A DVLPG LOW PRES SYS CENTERED OVR SERN KS.

PRIMARY FCST CONCERNS DURG THE SHORT TERM WL BE RAIN CHCS TNGT...
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL OF STRONG/SVR STORMS...THEN TEMPS THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE PD.

LAST FEW MODELS RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN PLAYING CATCH-UP
IN REGARDS TO MOISTURE ADVECTION OVR THE REGION. THE 12Z RUNS TODAY
LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE CDFNT AND UPPER
LVL LOW THAT WL PUSH ACRS AR TNGT AND EARLY FRI.

CDFNT IS PROGGED TO ENTER WRN AR THIS EVENING AND THEN SHIFT E OF
THE STATE FRI MRNG. STILL LOOKING AT CONVECTION FIRING VCNTY OF THE
FNT OVR WRN AR BY 9 PM AS CAP WEAKENS AND UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES FROM
THE PLAINS. SHOWERS/STORMS WL TRANSLATE EWD THRU THE OVERNIGHT
HRS...WITH BULK OF THE ACTIVITY E OF THE FA BY FRI MRNG. STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO THE HOW FAST AND HOW FAR N THE DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS
INTO AR...AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION WL BE SURFACE BASED AS OPPOSED TO
ELEVATED. APPEARS THAT SOME THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
EXIST OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE FA...PER DAY ONE OUTLOOK FM SPC.

GUSTY NW WINDS WL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FNT LATER TNGT AND ON FRI.
LIKELY WL NEED A LAKE WIND ADVY FRI FOR THE AREA...BUT WL LET MID
SHIFT MAKE FINAL DECISION. EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS ON FRI
AS THE FA WL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ASSOCD WITH UPPER LVL LOW
LOCATED JUST NE OF THE STATE. COULD SEE SOME WRAPAROUND LIGHT RAIN
OVR PARTS OF NERN HALF OF THE FA FRI MRNG AS WELL.

SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO AR FRI NGT AND SAT BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER CONDS BACK TO THE FA. RDG AXIS WL SLIDE ACRS AR SAT NGT AND
EARLY SUN...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY SUN AFTN. NEW STORM SYS
MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS STARTING SUN NGT. LOW LVL RH WL ONCE
AGAIN BE ON THE RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYS. HAVE LEFT SLGT CHC POPS IN
FOR SUN NGT AS WAA INCRS ACRS AR. BETTER CHCS OF RAIN WL EFFECT THE
REGION JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PD.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THEN AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. WITH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASED TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND KEPT ALL
PRECIP LIQUID. RAIN CHANCES END TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH.
COLDER AIR SETS IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
650 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006

ARZ030-031-014-033-012-013-037-038-053-056-057-054-055-015-016-
034-062-063-052-067-066-065-064-069-068-025-005-004-007-024-003-
041-040-043-042-045-044-047-046-022-021-032-023-006-039-131100-
LOGAN-CONWAY-STONE-WHITE-NEWTON-SEARCY-SCOTT-YELL-CLARK-JEFFERSON-
ARKANSAS-HOT SPRING-GRANT-IZARD-INDEPENDENCE-WOODRUFF-DALLAS-
CLEVELAND-PIKE-CALHOUN-OUACHITA-DESHA-LINCOLN-DREW-BRADLEY-
JACKSON-BAXTER-MARION-SHARP-CLEBURNE-BOONE-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SALINE-
GARLAND-LONOKE-PULASKI-MONROE-PRAIRIE-POPE-JOHNSON-FAULKNER-
VAN BUREN-FULTON-PERRY-
650 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF ARKANSAS
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND PENNY SIZE
HAIL OR LARGER. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

A STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
INITIALLY...WITH MOISTURE BECOMING MORE ABUNDANT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LATEST DATA SHOWS THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL DEPART TO THE EAST
MONDAY EVENING...WITH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS EARLY TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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