Severe Thunderstorm Warning 321, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
257 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS STNRY FRONT OVER SRN AR SOUTH OF MONTICELLO-
EL DORADO-TEXARKANA...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CREEPING IN TO
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS FROM WALNUT RIDGE TO BLYTHEVILLE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...LARGE LOW CONTINUES TO BE PARKED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
IT LOOKS LIKE IT/S GOING TO BE THERE FOR QUITE A WHILE.

SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE STNRY FRONT EARLIER
THIS MORNING...BUT MOST OF THESE WERE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL HAVE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY...AS STNRY
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...AND
SEVERAL UPPER IMPULSES MOVE DOWN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW.

AS WAS MENTIONED BEFORE...LONGWAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE LITTLE
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEING THE
DOMINANT REGIME. IMPULSES MOVING DOWN IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S. THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE OVER THE OZARKS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP READINGS BELOW NORMAL.
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S...AND HIGHS WILL MAINLY TOP
OUT IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED...AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WEST. MOISTURE AMOUNTS REMAIN MEAGER...AND CONTINUED FORECAST TREND
OF DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH A
WARMING TREND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  50  70  51 /  20  20  20  30
HARRISON AR       66  46  63  48 /  20  20  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    79  50  72  51 /  20  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     77  52  70  53 /  20  10  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  47  65  50 /  20  20  20  30
MONTICELLO AR     78  51  71  53 /  30  10  20  30
SEARCY AR         76  48  70  50 /  20  20  30  30
MOUNT IDA AR      78  45  69  43 /  20  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  44  63  48 /  20  20  20  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1025 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-141000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1025 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
TONIGHT. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT AND AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

51

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