Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
A VERY IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS
TONIGHT. OBS FROM THIS AFTERNOON WERE SHOWING A VERY IMPRESSIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AHEAD AND
30S/40S BEHIND. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ARKANSAS TONIGHT...TEMPS
WILL LIKELY DROP 30+ DEGREES IN THE SPAN OF AN HOUR. DEWPOINTS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WERE APPROACHING THE LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MOISTURE WAS RATHER SHALLOW THOUGH...AND A GOOD CAP WAS SPREAD OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS MIGHT INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING...THOUGH I WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A
FEW WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL TO RIDE
THE FRONT AS IT GETS INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS BY 12Z. THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE NC AND NE AR...WHERE FORCING
WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER AND INSTABILITY A LITTLE GREATER.

CANADIAN HIGH MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO PLACE.
LOWERED MINS FOR FRIDAY MORNING A LITTLE FROM GOING FORECAST AS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE COLD AIR INCREASED CONFIDENCE. HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY LOOKED ON TARGET. KEPT MENTION OF JUST SLIGHT POPS ACROSS FAR
S AR FRIDAY AS STATIONARY FRONT LURKS IN THE AREA.

COLDER AIRMASS WL CONT TO ADVECT SWD INTO AR ON FRI. LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL BE IN A LULL IN REGARDS TO PRECIP FOR MUCH OF FRI. NEXT UPPER
IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO APCH THE AREA FROM THE W FRI NGT...WITH A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. STILL EXPECT
A MOSTLY SNOW ACRS NRN AR THRU MIDDAY SAT WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE. A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FRZG RAIN WL AFFECT CNTRL THIRD OF
AR AND RAIN...MIXED WITH SLEET...OVR SRN AR. FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP
WL TAPER OFF FROM THE W LATER SAT AFTN. THUS...HAVE POSTED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF FRI NGT AND SAT FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME SRN
PART OF THE FA.

LOOKING AT ANOTHER UPPER SYS MOVG INTO THE REGION SUN AND SUN NGT...
RESULTING IN MORE WINTRY WX OVR MUCH OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES
WL LIKELY BE NECESSARY WITH LATER FCSTS.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. ENERGY WILL RIPPLE WITHIN THE FLOW...BUT TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL FEATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT. ONE SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE EAST
TOWARD THE STATE WEDNESDAY...BUT TO OUR NORTH...SO ITS EFFECT WILL
BE LESSENED SOMEWHAT. THE SURFACE PATTERN FOR MONDAY WILL SEE AN END
TO THE MIXED WINTRY WEATHER. A HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM
THE WEST QUICKLY...PUSHING DRY AIR OVER THE STATE FROM 00Z TUESDAY
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A LIMITED RETURN OF MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A MOSTLY DRY FRONT WILL
GATHER STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PUSH EAST QUICKLY AS
WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT. DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL
BE POISED JUST TO OUR WEST ONCE MORE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ003-ARZ004-ARZ005-
ARZ006-ARZ007-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-ARZ016-ARZ021-ARZ022-
ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ037-
ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-ARZ046-
ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-
ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO NOON SATURDAY FOR ARZ003-
ARZ004-ARZ005-ARZ006-ARZ007-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-ARZ016-
ARZ021-ARZ022-ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-
ARZ034-ARZ037-ARZ038-ARZ039.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY FOR
ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-ARZ046-ARZ047-ARZ052-
ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-ARZ064.
&&

SHORT TERM...220/44 / LONG TERM...32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-171100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
230 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS ARKANSAS LATER TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE NOTED WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH.
GUSTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.

GIVEN THE WINDY CONDITIONS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
TODAY FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS. THE WINDS WILL CAUSE CHOPPY CONDITIONS
ON AREA LAKES...WITH BOATERS ADVISED TO USE CAUTION.

THE COLD WILL FRONT WILL ALSO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
POSSIBLY BE TORNADIC BUT LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TO
BEGIN THE WEEKEND. THE COLD AIR WILL BE SHALLOW...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 30 TO 40 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON THURSDAY. IN FACT...
TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARKANSAS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

THE FRONT BRINGING THE COLD AIR WILL STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST. A
SYSTEM ALOFT FROM THE PLAINS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING. JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR...THERE WILL BE A WARM
LAYER ALOFT. PRECIPITATION WILL FALL THROUGH THE WARM LAYER AS RAIN
BUT WILL FREEZE AS IT REACHES THE GROUND.

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TOWARD THE MISSOURI
BORDER...THE COLD AIR MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...WITH
MAINLY RAIN TOWARD THE LOUISIANA BORDER WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.

THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NEARS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...AS
THE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL
ATTEMPT TO HEAD TOWARD ARKANSAS BEHIND THE HIGH...AND WILL OVERRUN
COLD AIR ACROSS THE STATE. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY.

THIS SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
STATE...WITH RAIN IN THE SOUTH. ICY PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO
THE FIRST PART OF PRESIDENTS DAY.

GIVEN THE LONG TERM DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THIS
WEEKEND...A MAJOR ICE STORM MAY BE IN THE WORKS. ROADS WILL LIKELY
BECOME TREACHEROUS...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH ICE TO DOWN TREES AND POWER
LINES AND CAUSE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. PEOPLE IN ARKANSAS ARE
ADVISED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS...AND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
LATER WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON PRESIDENTS DAY. THE HIGH WILL FORCE THE STALLED FRONT
ALONG THE GULF COAST TO MOVE AWAY...WITH PRECIPITATION FINALLY
ENDING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             4 W BATAVIA             36.25N 93.29W
02/16/2006  E1.00 INCH       BOONE              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0332 PM     HAIL             BATAVIA                 36.25N 93.22W
02/16/2006  M0.88 INCH       BOONE              AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

0338 PM     HAIL             1 N HARRISON            36.26N 93.12W
02/16/2006  M1.00 INCH       BOONE              AR   PUBLIC

0335 PM     HAIL             1 W HARRISON            36.24N 93.14W
02/16/2006  M0.88 INCH       BOONE              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
444 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             10 N MOUNTAIN HOME      36.48N 92.38W
02/16/2006  E0.75 INCH       BAXTER             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLARKRIDGE              36.47N 92.35W
02/16/2006                   BAXTER             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN.

&&

22

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