Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
352 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

.SHORT TERM....TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
DATA FROM LOCAL RADARS...AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INIDCATE THE PROGRESSION OF AN MCS...NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD REACH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
WEAKENING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES SUGGEST LARGE HAIL IS
THE PRIMARY THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...AS A LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ACCELERATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...PER FORECAST ISENTROPIC FIELDS.

COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
TUESDAY.  FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE 8 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM....THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE WITH DIFFERENCES IN BOTH TIMING AND STRENGTH IN THE FINER
DETAILS. PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT BLOCKY IN NATURE WITH WEAKENING
UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD AND SEMI PERMANENT NORTHEAST CONUS TROFFING. GFS AND ECMWF IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT THEY WERE
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS THINKING OF BLENDING
THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS THIS TIME AROUND.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH DOMINATING FRIDAY. OVERALL
FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS
DOWN FROM THE NORTH INTO THE UPPER MID WEST AND WHILE FORMING JUST A
WEAK CLOSED LOW...WILL EFFECTIVELY KEEP RELOADING THE NORTHEAST CONUS
TROF. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE
FRIDAY RESULT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING OUT BETWEEN THE
DEVELOPING LOW AND CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AIDED BY A SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AS NUMEROUS PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. WILL END PRECIP CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY
AS SYSTEM PULLS OUT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE IN DAY SEVEN.

AREA IS IN NORTHWEST FLOW DURING PERIOD ALTHOUGH IT DOES FLATTEN OUT
SOMEWHAT LATE. NOT SEEING ANY REAL WARM UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THE ENTIRE PERIOD OR EVEN
A TAD BELOW...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND
WILL BE FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  79  53  69 /  70  80  30   0
HARRISON AR       62  66  44  65 /  50  50  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    67  74  50  69 /  70  70  20   0
PINE BLUFF AR     66  81  54  70 /  80  80  40   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  69  45  65 /  50  50  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     67  83  56  71 /  90  80  50   0
SEARCY AR         67  79  51  68 /  70  70  20   0
MOUNT IDA AR      66  72  49  69 /  70  60  20   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   66  74  50  68 /  70  60  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
200 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-251000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
200 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS FROM OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS ARKANSAS...IT WILL RUN INTO UNSTABLE AIR...SO THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE EARLY HOURS TUESDAY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.
THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST SLOWLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS...AS THE FRONT RUNS INTO MORE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

32

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
301 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             OMAHA                   36.46N 93.19W
04/24/2006  E0.75 INCH       BOONE              AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
312 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     HAIL             DIAMOND CITY            36.46N 92.92W
04/24/2006  E0.75 INCH       BOONE              AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
354 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     HAIL             PEEL                    36.43N 92.77W
04/24/2006  E1.00 INCH       MARION             AR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            REPORT FROM THE PEEL FERRY.

&&

28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
404 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     HAIL             2 NW JASPER             36.03N 93.21W
04/24/2006  E1.00 INCH       NEWTON             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL WAS KNOCKING LEAVES OFF THE TREES. WINDS ESTIMATED
            AT 55 MPH.

&&

28

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