High Wind Warning 1, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
538 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006

.AVIATION...
TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS CAUSING GUSTY WINDS BEHIND AN INVERTED
TROF SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. PRECIP WILL BE ENDING
SOON FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THIS MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT NOT MENTIONED SPECIFICALLY IN
TAFS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 406 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING INTO SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN COMMON IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
DURING THIS LATEST EVENT...WITH OVER FIVE INCHES OF RAIN IN
SOME AREAS. WHILE HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIT THE STATE TO THE EAST
THIS MORNING...EVENT NOT QUITE OVER YET.

DOUBLE BARREL LOW WILL FOLLOW RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERNMOST
LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND TO THE SOUTH OF
ARKANSAS. WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE SURROUNDING
LOW...WITH SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ANTICIPATED IN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. MEANWHILE...LOW FARTHER NORTH WILL TRACK INTO ARKANSAS.
COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...MAKING IT FAIRLY EASY FOR HAIL TO
FORM. LOOKING FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN.

STORMS WITH HAIL WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...WITH DRY SLOTTING
OCCURRING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE SOUTH OF
LITTLE ROCK TONIGHT...WITH SKY REMAINING CLOUDY FARTHER NORTH. COULD
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW TOWARD
MISSOURI BORDER LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY
DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE 20S/30S NOTED...WITH A FREEZE
IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE.

MORE SUNSHINE IS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY...BUT A SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. (46)

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. IT IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS IT SLIDES EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. THEN...ANOTHER COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...PUSHING THE RIDGE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA FOR
SUNDAY. THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE A RATHER LARGE
HIGH STRETCHING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE GULF COAST. IT WILL
BE A WELCOMED DRY PERIOD AFTER ALL THE CURRENT RAINS. WITH THE
AIRMASS ORIGINATING SO FAR NORTH...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMALS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. LOWS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OR
THREE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR FREEZING IN THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS. (32)

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AVIATION...32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-211100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE EXISTS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE THE BREEDING CONDITIONS FOR HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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