Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
645 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS OF 1130Z. CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET ARE NOT NEARLY AS
EXTENSIVE AS EARLIER FORECAST...HOWEVER...AREAS OF CEILINGS BELOW
1000 FEET STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. CEILINGS AND VISIBILIES
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 1500Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EXTREME WESTERN AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AS OF 1130Z. BUT...SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP CLOSE TO TAF SITES...SO NONE INCLUDED IN 1200Z TAFS. AFTER
1500Z...EXPECT SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR 3500 FEET
WITH HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY JUST
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A RATHER QUIET MORNING THIS MORNING AFTER WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN
ONM WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN THERE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY INTO FRIDAY. FOG HAS
DEVELOPED AT MOST STATIONS WITH VISIBILITIES LOW ENOUGH TO HINDER
AVIATION BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST. WILL HAVE SMALL POPS IN THOSE AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND KEEP
MENTION OF RAIN OUT FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE
AN MCS WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THIS SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA. RETURN FLOW INCREASES ON
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND THIS WILL BRING A WARM
HUMID AIR MASS TO THE ENTIRE AREA. ANY SHORT WAVES OR MCVS THAT CAN
REACH THE AREA FRIDAY COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SO WILL GO WITH SMALL POPS IN ALL AREAS FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR THE WEEKEND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE
PLAINS AND MAY REACH NEAR THE NORTHERN PART OF ARKANSAS. LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. WARM
HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL STAY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM PEAK HEATING. WENT MAINLY WITH 30 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD MOSTLY TO BLEND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. DO NOT SEE PRECIP
CHANCES BEING THAT HIGH BUT DEFINITELY ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL ON MINS AND CLOSE TO
NORMAL ON MAXES.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. THINK THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT HAS PLAGUED US FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
SERIES OF WEAK H5 SHORT WAVES COUPLED WITH FRONT MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST AREA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WILL FORECAST ABOUT 30 PERCENT POPS INITIALLY UNTIL FRONT
BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE IN ON MONDAY. UPPED POPS TO 40 PERCENT FOR
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL TAKE ITS OWN
SWEET TIME MAKING IT TO SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY EVENING.
SYSTEM WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA...COUPLED WITH
CONTINUING SHORT WAVES...TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE
TO NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-251000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED JUST OF SOUTH OF ARKANSAS
EARLY TODAY. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH AND EXTREME WEST TODAY AND THIS
EVENING DUE TO THE CLOSENESS OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE
STORMS WILL OCCUR.

AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MID MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP BELOW ONE MILE IN A FEW AREAS. DRIVERS
TRAVELING EARLY TODAY SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY. A CONTINUING SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL
AFFECT ARKANSAS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS ON MONDAY...BUT WILL MOVE ONLY VERY
SLOWLY THROUGH THE STATE.

THERE WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER...
ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS OR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK
ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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