Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
656 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS. RAINFALL APPROACHING CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT 1200Z. HAVE
UPDATED FORECASTS TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE FOR TODAY. ALL UPDATES GONE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 638 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2006/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. THESE APPEAR TO BE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE
EAST AND MAY IMPACT KHOT...KHRO AND KLIT DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON SO HAVE A FOUR HOUR TEMPO PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AT THOSE SITES. KPBF AND KLLQ MAY BE AFFECTED THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER
AIR IN THE NORTH MAY KEEP KBPK FROM BEING AFFECTED SO NO THUNDER WAS
FORECAST THERE. IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT KHRO AND KBPK THIS
MORNING SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND
HAZE COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE CU
AT 4000 FT AFTER 16Z THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 418 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2006/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDED OVER ALL BUT PARTS OF THE WEST
DURING THE NIGHT. BEFORE DAWN...A BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PERRY COUNTY.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FIRED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MOVED LITTLE
OVERNIGHT...AND SOME PARTS OF YELL COUNTY GOT SOME VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CENTRAL YELL COUNTY UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE. REMNANTS OF FRONT APPEAR TO
EXTEND ALONG THE ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA BORDER NORTHWESTWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. GFS INDICATING AN H5 SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT TODAY. THIS WILL PUT THE BEST CHANCES
OF RAIN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
CHANCE IN THOSE AREAS FOR TODAY...THEN TAPERED THEM OFF
NORTHEASTWARD. LEFT EXTREME NORTHEAST DRY FOR TODAY. WILL CONTINUE
SMALL POPS FOR TONIGHT IN THE EXTREME WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH FRONT
IN THE AREA. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR
SMALL CHANCES IN THE EXTREME SOUTH AND EXTREME WEST. MOISTURE BEGINS
TO MOVE BACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE STATE BY FRIDAY AS H5 SHORT
WAVES ROTATE AROUND UPPER HIGH. HAVE SMALL POPS IN FOR FRIDAY IN
MOST SECTIONS AS MOISTURE INCREASES. CONTINUE SMALL POPS INTO
SATURDAY AS NEXT COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MAIN CENTER TO THE EAST. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY WILL TRY TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS DUE TO THE
RIDGING ALOFT. INDICATIONS ARE THE FRONT MAY REACH NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND BECOME STATIONARY. IT MAY END UP EVOLVING INTO A SERIES OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD MOVE ANYWHERE. MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT LOW LEVELS. WILL NEED
SOME MENTION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT THIS JUNCTURE...20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS LOOK BEST. TEMPS
SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH MINS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS
AND MAXES CLOSE TO NORMAL.

22

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. ONCE
AGAIN...A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING IN WESTERN ARKANSAS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE
MOVEMENT. AREAS UNDER THE STRONGEST PARTS OF THESE STORMS WILL GET
VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH OVER 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR POSSIBLE. THIS COULD
CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THIS COULD
CONTINUE IN PARTS OF THE STATE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH OLD FRONTAL SYSTEMS OR
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES. ISOLATED STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS OR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK
ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

29