Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CDT WED APR 12 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AREA WILL BE IN PRETTY MUCH OF A SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM WITH UPPER RIDGING IN THE AREA KEEPING COLD FRONTS AND
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES AT BAY AND BRINGING RATHER PERSISTENT TEMPS
WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE. SATELLITE SHOWS INCREASING CU
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN
THE NORTH THIS EVENING WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IN CASE SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP THERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z OR 02Z IF IT DOES DEVELOP. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SHOULD EITHER WEAKEN OR MOVE AWAY BY THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE SO EXPECT NO PRECIP THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S IN MOST OF THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL FAVOR AN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WHICH COULD BRING MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX WARMING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR AND MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S. THE PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY BUT BY THAT TIME A SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE
AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FRONT FROM THIS WILL
APPRAOCH THE AREA SATURDAY BUT SHOULD NOT PENETRATE THE RIDGE. GFS
HINTS AT A MOISTURE AXIS MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE AN AREA OF CONVECTION OR MCS BUT NOT
REAL CONFIDENT IF ANY SUCH THING CAN HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS. WILL JUST GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND 10 PERCENT
POPS FOR NOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS.
PROBABLY WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY SO WILL BACK OFF TO MID
80S FOR MAXES ON SATURDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A NEW
SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  60  85  63  87 /  10  10  10   0
HARRISON AR       58  84  61  88 /  20  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  85  63  88 /  10  10  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     61  86  63  87 /  10  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  84  62  87 /  20  10  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     59  86  61  86 /  10  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         58  85  59  87 /  10  10  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      59  85  60  87 /  10  10  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   57  85  58  88 /  10  10  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...29 / LONG TERM...58/219

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
355 PM CDT WED APR 12 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-131000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
355 PM CDT WED APR 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING...NORTH OF A LINE FROM CLARKSVILLE...TO
CLINTON...TO NEWPORT. BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND LARGE HAIL
WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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