Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
647 PM CDT THU JUL 27 2006

.AVIATION...
UPR LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED INVOF THE ARKLATEX MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL PUSH PRECIP INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND IFR. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE CONDS GO BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VISBYS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON PRECIP INTENSITY. GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE SRN- CNTRL AR THRU ABOUT 06Z AND
CNTRL-NRN AR AFT 06Z. TAFS ALREADY OUT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU JUL 27 2006/

DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS
OVERNIGHT AS IT KEEPS FILLING AND GETTING PICKED UP BY THE TROF
DROPPING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL
TENDENCY OF TROPICAL CONVECTION WILL KEEP UP THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH QPF VALUES WILL BE HIGH
FOR DAY ONE...THE GROUND HAS BEEN STARVED OF MOISTURE FOR A LONG
TIME SO THAT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED. MENTIONED THE
POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CONVECTION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
IN LIGHT OF HAVING HAD GUSTY WINDS ALREADY EVEN WHERE LIGHTNING
WAS LACKING. THE HIGHER POPS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
AWAY AND REMNANTS OF SURFACE FRONT DROP SOUTH FROM MISSOURI. RAINS
SHOULD BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR SLIDES
IN FROM THE WEST WITH LEESIDE TROF GATHERING STRENGTH ALL ALONG
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE OVER FOR THE WORK
WEEK. LOWS WILL BE PROPPED UP BY THE HIGH DEW POINTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN THEY WILL BE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
635 PM CDT THU JUL 27 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-281000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
635 PM CDT THU JUL 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM WAS OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN SURROUNDED THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE.

OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS...OR IN AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF MENA...MORRILTON AND BATESVILLE. WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...ISOLATED
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE SOUTHEAST OF BRINKLEY AND CAMDEN.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT RAIN WILL TRANSLATE INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD JASPER AND
HARRISON.

WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

THE STORM SYSTEM IN ARKANSAS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
STARTING THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WITH ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

46