Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 AM CDT THU MAY 4 2006

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING SEVERAL MESOSCALE
SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA. FIRST SYSTEM OVER NORTH CENTRAL/
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. EASILY SEEN OUTFLOW GENERATED BY THIS SYSTEM WILL NO DOUBT
ACT AS SOME FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE HEATING OF THE
DAY KICKS IN. THE OTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA INVOF
SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.

THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. CURRENT
SYSTEM IN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL WEAKEN IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE STATE AND INTERACTS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.

PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
ARKANSAS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND INTERACT WITH
THE SYSTEM. THIS INTERACTION...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC
UPLIFT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE WILL
ALLOW FOR ONE TO TWO INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS...
MEANING THAT THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. AS HAS BEEN THE TREND
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM AND MOVE OVER THE
SAME AREAS WHICH WILL ALSO INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. AS LOW
AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS...AND AS SATURATED AS THE GROUND HAS
BEEN...AM GOING TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF A
LINE FROM WALDRON...TO CONWAY...TO AUGUSTA.

SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HAIL
AND WIND BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

AS THE UPPER FLOW BUCKLES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THE FRONT WILL GAIN
A LITTLE MORE MOMENTUM. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE STATE BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT OVER THE
REGION...WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. THUS...
KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FRONT
ITSELF WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY...MOVING BACK
TO THE NORTH SOME TIME NEXT WEEK.

THANKS TO WFO TULSA FOR COORDINATION THIS MORNING.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL COVER THE AREA AT FIRST WITH COOLER
AIR IN PLACE BUT THIS WEAKENS ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND BRING MORE MOISTURE IN. MEANWHILE THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL COME OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WEAKEN AS
IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN UPPER FLOW. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
SETTLES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. INDICATIONS ARE THIS FRONT WILL REACH
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA THEN STALL BEFORE FINALLY MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OF COURSE THIS TIMING IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. AT ANY
RATE WILL NEED TO HAVE MENTION OF SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. KEPT
FORECAST DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THEN HAVE POPS IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. KEPT TEMP FORECASTS THE SAME
EXCEPT FOR MINS NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAISED THEM SOME AS THE COLD
FRONT IS INDICATED TO BE HANGING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  81  60  72  57 /  70  70  50  40
HARRISON AR       71  51  66  50 /  80  80  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    81  61  71  59 /  70  70  50  40
PINE BLUFF AR     81  62  73  59 /  70  70  50  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  53  67  52 /  80  80  40  30
MONTICELLO AR     81  62  73  59 /  60  70  60  50
SEARCY AR         82  59  72  56 /  80  80  50  30
MOUNT IDA AR      82  55  69  55 /  70  70  50  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  53  68  53 /  70  80  50  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ003-ARZ004-ARZ005-
ARZ006-ARZ007-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-ARZ016-ARZ021-ARZ022-
ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ037-
ARZ038-ARZ039.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1155 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-041000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1155 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MORE FAVORED AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NEAR A
WEAKENING WARM FRONT IN THE NORTH AND NEAR THE REMNANTS OF AN
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...WHICH COULD SET UP IN SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND COULD MOVE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT LITTLE FLOODING
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE ON
THURSDAY WILL HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS OR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. PRESENT INDICATIONS FAVOR THIS FRONT EVENTUALLY
MOVING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ARKANSAS FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE GENERAL TENDENCY WILL BE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH A
WEAKENING TREND LATE AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING.

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND BEING THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO...
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS AND
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

IT APPEARS THAT NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE FOR
HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE SATURDAY AND LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN ON MONDAY. LITTLE OR NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN
SOME AREAS.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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