Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
231 PM CST SAT APR 1 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PRESSING ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE TEMPERATURES...WINDS ON
SUNDAY...AS WELL AS SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS NORTH OF SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM
BOUNDARY AND ALONG H5 SHORTWAVE. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY
AS THE WARM FRONT AND AREA OF ENHANCED LIFTING WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD IN THE MEAN FLOW. INDIVIDUAL CELLS BEGINNING TO SHOW
UP OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE IN AREAS SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. COULD ALSO BE
AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY STRONG STORM THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

WAS TEMPTED EARLIER TO LOWER MAXIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...DUE
TO LARGE AMOUNT OF STRATUS/STRATOCU OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND NOT TO MENTION SEVERAL
SUCKER HOLES OPENING UP...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S LOOK TO HAVE PANNED
OUT IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
LIKELY AGAIN ON SUNDAY...AS APCHING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
MOVING INTO ARKANSAS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING...GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT ON
SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE IS GIVING SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KT AT MANY
SITES BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z SUNDAY. SO...WILL BEEF UP WIND WORDING IN
THE FORECAST...INCLUDE GUSTS TO 35 MPH...AND ISSUE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 7 PM SUNDAY.

NEXT ISSUE OF IMPORTANCE IS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND
SPECIFICALLY ANY SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
ON ONE HAND...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT...WITH NEARLY
3000 J/KG CAPE FORECASTED IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND LI/S LESS THAN
-8...AND SPEED SHEAR WITH 90KT UPPER JET PRESENT. ON THE OTHER
HAND...BEST UPPER SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH
OF ARKANSAS. THUS...WHILE THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SOME STRONG
STORMS IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AM THINKING THAT THE GREATEST SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL WILL MOSTLY BE IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS...CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE SYSTEM. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE CELL DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON OVER ERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN
ARKANSAS...EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL LINE FEATURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS. HAIL AND WIND COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
SEVERE STORM THAT DEVELOPS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT WILL WAIT TO MENTION IT IN THE
FORECAST.

THE FRONT ITSELF WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL
ACTUALLY BE A MARKED COOLDOWN IN TEMPERATURES...WITH OVERNIGHT
READINGS RETURNING TO THE 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND DAYTIME HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND WINDS
TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROF MOVING THE NATIONS MID SECTION EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THIS
INDIVIDUAL FEATURE AND THE OVERALL PATTERN OF MEAN TROFFING OFF THE
WEST COAST AND MEAN RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL CONUS. RIDGING IS
OCCASIONALLY KNOCKED DOWN BY PACIFIC SYSTEMS LIKE THE ONE EARLY IN
THE PERIOD BUT ALWAYS SEEMS TO REBOUND. THAT BEING SAID...WILL GO
WITH A BLEND OF MODELS THIS AFTERNOON.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH STRONG UPPER TROF IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
WITH CLOSED 500 MB ISOHEIGHT ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER.
SURFACE REFLECTION LOCATED IN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE BIG
BEND OF TEXAS. GULF MOISTURE WILL BE FEED INTO THE SYSTEM BY HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SYSTEM OCCLUDES DURING THE DAY AND
BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AS UPPER SUPPORTS CATCHES UP TO THE
SURFACE FEATURE. WILL BOOST PRECIP CHANCES TO HIGH SCATTERED FOR NOW
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE GO UP AS SYSTEM EVOLVES.

PRIMARY FRONT CLEARS THE STATE EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...AIDED BY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING UPPER SUPPORT MAY BE SLOWER TO CLEAR THE
AREA THAN OTHER MODELS ARE SHOWING AND WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY UNTIL THE WHOLE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT. SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR DAY SEVEN AND ALL MENTION OF PRECIP WILL BE
PULLED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LEAST THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY.
NORTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FOR DAY SEVEN WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  80  57  71 /  30  40  40  10
HARRISON AR       61  76  51  67 /  40  40  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    66  80  55  74 /  30  40  40  10
PINE BLUFF AR     63  80  59  72 /  30  40  40  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  61  78  51  68 /  40  40  30  10
MONTICELLO AR     63  82  59  72 /  20  50  50  10
SEARCY AR         62  77  56  69 /  40  40  40  10
MOUNT IDA AR      64  80  51  72 /  30  40  30  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   61  77  50  69 /  30  40  30  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ003-
ARZ004-ARZ005-ARZ006-ARZ007-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-ARZ016-
ARZ021-ARZ022-ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-
ARZ034-ARZ037-ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-
ARZ045-ARZ046-ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-
ARZ062-ARZ063-ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK....UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1110 AM CST SAT APR 1 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-021100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1110 AM CST SAT APR 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT... CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION ALLOWING THE AIR MASS TO BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE. ANY SUNSHINE THAT DOES MANAGE TO BREAK THROUGH WILL ONLY
MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE MORE UNSTABLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE FOG ARE LIKELY TO
RETURN TO THE AREA TOWARDS MORNING WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED TO A MILE
OR LESS AT TIMES.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

EARLY MORNING FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY EARLY SUNDAY BUT SHOULD
BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY...A SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL EXIST AS THE SQUALL LINE ADVANCES ACROSS THE STATE.
THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS....CLOSER TO THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ADVANCING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LARGE HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING YET ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH IT.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
417 PM CST SAT APR 01 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             MENA                    34.58N 94.24W
04/01/2006  E0.75 INCH       POLK               AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

28