Tornado Warning 10, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
230 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT-FRIDAY/...

SPC HAS BOXED SWRN VA. NEW MESO DSCN JUST RLSD BY SPC HILITES SVR
PTNL ESPECIALLY IN I-95 CORRIDOR INTO SE PA. IN OUR CWA FEEL
GREATEST THREAT WL BE ACRS VA UP TO THE PTMC RVR AND LOWER SRN MD.
AS STATED IN ERLR PRODUCTS FEEL MOST LKLY THREAT IS STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. NOTICED EKN CURRENTLY NW G33KT.

SO FNT IS ON ITS WAY...AND XPCTD TO MV E OF THE BAY BTWN 03-06Z. BLV
PCPN WL DEGRADE TO A GNRL RA DURG THE NGT TIME HRS...ENDING B4
SUNRISE. BLV SKIES E OF THE MTNS COULD HV A START OF GNRLY CLR...BUT
THEN W/ WINDS KICKING UP A BKN SC DECK COULD FORM BY MID MRNG...BRKG
UP B4 SUNDOWN.

TEMPS M50S TNGT...MU60S FRI.

WOODY

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NGT-THURSDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND EXIT EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION AREAS OF FROST FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE MID TO EVEN A FEW LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR AND DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE...WILL HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING A 3RD PERIOD ADVISORY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHIFT.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST
BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AFTER A COOL BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO CLIMATE NORMALS.

SEA

&&

.AVIATION...

CIG/VSBY DEGRADATION THIS EVE IN TSTMS W/ G35 PSBL. WINDS SLACKEN
OVRNGT B4 KICKING UP AGN FRI MRNG. CHO MOST KLY TO HV VSBY REDUCTION
IN FOG OVRNGT.

&&

.MARINE...SCA IN EFFECT THRU FRI AFTN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>537 UNTIL 3 PM FRIDAY.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
316 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-
025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ048>055-291015-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ALLEGANY-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-GRANT-MINERAL-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
PENDLETON-HARDY-
316 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE
EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT
COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
AND MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY.

AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OPERATIONS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
525 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 NNE BORING            39.65N 76.76W
09/28/2006                   BALTIMORE          MD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN OVER NORTHERN BALTIMORE COUNTY.

&&

MANNING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
526 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

MDZ004>006-009>011-282215-
CARROLL MD-FREDERICK MD-HOWARD MD-MONTGOMERY MD-NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
526 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

...WIND GUST HEADING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...

AT 526 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A WIND GUST OF 40 TO 50 MPH
WAS HEADING TOWARDS BALTIMORE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MARYLAND. AT
5:25 THE GUST HAD REACHED FREDERICK. IT WAS MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN MARYLAND
AND NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

STRONG

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