Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
410 AM EDT WED APR 5 2006

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

VIGOROUS UPPER LVL WAVE DROPPING S INTO PA THIS MRNG. THIS WAVE IS
PRODUCING SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY OUR N 1/2 CWFA. THIS
INCLUDES THE DC/BALT AREA WHERE SOME OBS HAVE TRACED ALREADY. WILL
KEEP A MENTION ON LOW POPS IN THE METROS THROUGH MID MRNG TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE UPPER WAVE BUT KEEP NIL POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SE.

STRONG GRAD WINDS AGAIN TODAY...SIMILAR TO YDAY...EXCEPT DOWNSLOPING
REALLY MAY BE A BIGGER PROBLEM TODAY WITH G TO 30KT ALREADY
OCCURRING. THINK BETTER TRAJ WITH NW FLOW AND SFC LOW FORMS OFF
JERSEY LATER THIS MRNG.

GOOD SUNSHINE IN THE S TODAY BUT MORE CLOUDS IN THE N CLOSER TO THE
WAVE. MSRBL PRECIP SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR IN THE POT HIGHLANDS THIS
MRNG WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL SHEN VLY WITH NEAR
RED FLAG ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY. WITH COORD WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS AND THE VA INTERAGENCY COORD CTR...WE HAVE ISSUED
THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL SHEN VLY AND PART OF THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA...TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE GEO
WASHINGTON AND JEFFERSON FORESTS. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE
WARNING TO INCLUDE LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH...BUT FOR NOW RH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS LOW AND THOSE AREAS ALSO HAD A LITTLE BETTER
PRECIP THE OTHER DAY. HWVR...STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...

WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT MOVING TOWARDS THE MARINE WATERS EARLY THIS
MRNG...HAVE BROUGHT SCA TO BEGIN IMMEDIATELY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING. GUSTS OF 30 KT WILL BE COMMON ON THE WATERS TODAY...BUT
WILL HOLD CONDS BLW GALE FOR NOW. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY IF THE WARM FRONT PUNCHES NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH GFS/NAM MOS SUGGESTING SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25KTS.
COULD ALSO SEE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA NORTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
OBSERVATIONS...500MB HEIGHT/ANOMALY PATTERN DURING THE PAST 5 DAYS
SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN HAS EVOLVED FROM THE
PACIFIC EAST ACROSS THE CONUS. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW
MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...WITH A RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A TROUGH FROM
A 995MB CYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE SOUTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.
A COLD/STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BISECTING A PAIR OF
ANTICYCLONES WHICH DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

MODELS...THE 00Z GFS/NAM/WRF-NMM/CANADIAN ALONG WITH THE 12Z SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>537 UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY.EUROPEAN AND
UKMET WERE INVESTIGATED. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE EVOLUTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HEIGHTS RISE LATE DURING THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC
SYSTEM APPEARS TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SUNDAY AND LASTING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLE DATA...12Z GFS 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW GREAT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG RANGE...WITH AN UPPER LOW WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FOR THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS RISE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GFS ENSEMBLE MOS FROM MONDAY EVENINGS RUN SHOW MEAN HIGHS RISE FROM
THE LOWER 50S WED TO THE UPPER 60S FRI...BEFORE DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S SUN...AND RECOVERING INTO THE MID 60S BY TUES. MEAN LOWS
BEGIN NEAR 30F THURSDAY MORNING...RECOVER TO THE UPPER 40S SAT
MORNING...BEFORE RANGING BETWEEN 35 AND 40F THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
MEAN POPS RISE INTO THE CHANCE RANGE EARLY THIS WEEKEND (WITH GOOD
AGREEMENT).

FORECAST RATIONALE...AFTER A PERIOD OF PLEASANT WEATHER THURSDAY
ENCOURAGED BY BUILDING HEIGHTS...THE NEXT WEAKENING PACIFIC WAVE
BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ALL SIGNS POINT TO CLEARING CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED SKIES
TO MORE OPTIMISTIC VALUES DUE TO EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WHICH SETS UP
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

GNRLY VFR CONDS TODAY BUT WINDS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR THE TAF
SITES...WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FOR VAZ021-025>027-029-030-036>040-050-051-
     056 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING FOR WVZ048-054-055 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>537 UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BROTHERTON
LONG TERM...ROGOWSKI
MARINE...BROTHERTON/ROGOWSKI

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