High Wind Warning 3, NWS Baltimore/Washington

Allegany County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Carroll County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Frederick County, MD, Washington County, MD, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Greene County, VA, Madison County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Page County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Warren County, VA, Berkeley County, WV, Grant County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Jefferson County, WV, Mineral County, WV, Morgan County, WV

000 
WWUS71 KLWX 011600
NPWLWX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1100 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

MDZ003>007-009>011-501-502-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-WVZ050>055-
501>504-012200-
/O.CON.KLWX.HW.W.0003.061201T1700Z-061202T0600Z/
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-
SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-
GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-
BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-
WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...
STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...
CHARLOTTESVILLE...WASHINGTON...LEESBURG...MARTINSBURG...
CHARLES TOWN...BAYARD...PETERSBURG...KITZMILLER...KEYSER...
FORT ASHBY
1100 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY. 

AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT HALT THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION HAS
BEEN EXPERIENCING THIS WEEK. 

BY NOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND...MOVING QUICKLY
EASTWARD AND REACHING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY ABOUT 5 OR 6 THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG A FEW THOUSAND FEET
OFF THE SURFACE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WIND WILL BE
BROUGHT TO THE GROUND IN THESE SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL BRING DOWN TREES
AND CREATE OTHER DAMAGE. THE BAND SHOULD REACH BALTIMORE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

$$

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016>018-VAZ050>057-012200-
/O.CON.KLWX.WI.Y.0014.061201T1700Z-061202T0600Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-
ST. MARYS-CALVERT-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...
ST MARYS CITY...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...
ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG
1100 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY. 

AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT HALT THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION HAS
BEEN EXPERIENCING THIS WEEK. 

BY NOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN VIRGINIA...MOVING QUICKLY
EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG
A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
WIND WILL BE BROUGHT TO THE GROUND IN SHOWERS. WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD BRING DOWN TREES AND CREATE OTHER
DAMAGE. THIS BAND SHOULD REACH WASHINGTON BETWEEN 3 AND 5 THIS
AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$
STRONG

000 
WWUS71 KLWX 011959
NPWLWX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
259 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

MDZ003>007-009>011-501-502-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-WVZ050>055-
501>504-020400-
/O.CON.KLWX.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-061202T0600Z/
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-
SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-
GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-
BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-
WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...
STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...
CHARLOTTESVILLE...WASHINGTON...LEESBURG...MARTINSBURG...
CHARLES TOWN...BAYARD...PETERSBURG...KITZMILLER...KEYSER...
FORT ASHBY
259 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY. 

AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT HALT THIS
EVENING TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCING THIS WEEK.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BETWEEN 6
AND 7 THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG A FEW
THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WIND
WILL BE BROUGHT TO THE GROUND IN THESE SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL
BRING DOWN TREES AND CREATE OTHER DAMAGE.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

$$

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016>018-VAZ050>057-020400-
/O.CON.KLWX.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-061202T0600Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-
ST. MARYS-CALVERT-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...
ST MARYS CITY...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...
ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG
259 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY. 

AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT HALT THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION HAS
BEEN EXPERIENCING THIS WEEK.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BETWEEN 6
AND 7 THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG A FEW
THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WIND
WILL BE BROUGHT TO THE GROUND IN THESE SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL
BRING DOWN TREES AND CREATE OTHER DAMAGE.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

SMITH

000 
WWUS71 KLWX 012248
NPWLWX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
548 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

MDZ003>007-009>011-501-502-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-WVZ050>055-
501>504-020000-
/O.CAN.KLWX.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-061202T0600Z/
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-
SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-
GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-
BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-
WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...
STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...
CHARLOTTESVILLE...WASHINGTON...LEESBURG...MARTINSBURG...
CHARLES TOWN...BAYARD...PETERSBURG...KITZMILLER...KEYSER...
FORT ASHBY
548 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS CANCELLED
THE HIGH WIND WARNING. 

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...BUT DAMAGING WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. 

$$

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016>018-VAZ050>057-020000-
/O.CAN.KLWX.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-061202T0600Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-
ST. MARYS-CALVERT-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...
ST MARYS CITY...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...
ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG
548 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS CANCELLED
THE WIND ADVISORY. 

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...BUT STRONGER WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. 

$$
MANNING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1023 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 00Z SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
FROM MAINE THROUGH OHIO AND KENTUCKY ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO LOUISIANA.
THERE WERE LOWS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT IN EASTERN OHIO...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. REGIONAL
RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MID ATLANTIC.

JUST A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FIRST PERIOD. HAVE DECREASED
POPS...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE
RADAR IS MOST LIKELY OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...WARM
ADVECTION AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. ALSO MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

DID NOT TOUCH THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. THINGS LOOK CONSISTENT
COMPARED TO WHAT THE DAY SHIFT SAW EARLIER TODAY. LOOKS LIKE A WINDY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL UPDATE WORDING FOR THE HIGH WIND WATCH
AND COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT...BUT NO CHANGES TO OVERALL MESSAGE.
UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z-24Z/...

CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND INCREASING WINDS COMPARED
TO THE FOG CONCERNS OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. INCREASING WINDS
SHOULD HELP ALLEVIATE THE FOG CONCERN. HOWEVER GIVEN THE WARM
ADVECTION AND MOIST LOWER LEVELS...MVFR FOG IS STILL EXPECTED WITH A
FEW AREAS OF IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

CEILINGS WILL FALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT. A CONCERN FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO WIND. EXPECT STRONG SOUTH WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN A
DEFINITE WIND SHIFT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WILL HELP TO BRING DOWN THE HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS MARGINAL...WITH ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS
REPORTING GUSTS ABOVE 15 KNOTS. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY OVERNIGHT
SINCE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TIGHTENS.

MARINE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. GALE WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES
EAST TOWARDS THE AREA.

WILL CONTINUE THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT ISSUED EARLIER TODAY.
TIDES ARE RUNNING A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THESE
ANOMALIES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE. STILL EXPECT HIGHEST ANOMALIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...

WARM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL APPROACH...OR EVEN
BREAK...RECORDS FOR THE HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TOMORROW.

KBWI...FORECAST LOW OF 56...RECORD HIGH MIN TEMP IS 54 (1991).
KDCA...FORECAST LOW OF 57...RECORD HIGH MIN TEMP IS 56 (1991).
KIAD...FORECAST LOW OF 58...RECORD HIGH MIN TEMP IS 55 (1991).

HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO...OR EVEN
TIE...THE RECORDS...

KBWI...FORECAST LOW OF 67...RECORD HIGH TEMP IS 73 (2001).
KDCA...FORECAST LOW OF 71...RECORD HIGH TEMP IS 71 (2001).
KIAD...FORECAST LOW OF 68...RECORD HIGH TEMP IS 72 (2001).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 324 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...

LOTS OF ACTION IN THE ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...

THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS...BUT MOST OF IT MIDDLE
AND HIGH CLOUDS. WILL PROB BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND VSBYS MOVING IN
LATE WITH SOME MORNING FOG ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS BAD AS THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS IN THE ATMOS WILL BE INCREASING...BUT SFC
WINDS NOT AS MUCH DURING THE NIGHT. WARM AIR MOVING OVER THE COLD
WATER WILL HELP TO KEEP SPEEDS DOWN ON THE WATER... BUT WILL MAINTAIN
THE SMALL CRAFT AS IT IS...BEGINNING AT 00Z THIS EVENING. THINK IT
WILL BE BORDERLINE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. TIDAL SURGE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING OVER NIGHT AND THINK WE WILL BEGIN TO HAVE SOME MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING PROBS WITH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE AND A LITTLE MORE WITH
FRIDAYS HIGH TIDE. WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING UP THE
APPALACHIANS ALL DAY AND GETTING INTO OUR CWA AS WELL. EXPECT THAT
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE
AXIS OF THAT WAA FORCING MOVING FURTHER EAST...BEST CHCS WEST LESS
CHC EAST.

FOR FRIDAY...

THERE WILL BE A LOT OF WIND AT 850MB AND ABOVE... THE QUESTION IS
WHEN AND HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG THE WIND WILL MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.
THE STRONGEST ATMOS WINDS WILL BE PREFRONTAL IN THIS CASE... BUT AS
IS THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT... THE
STRONG WINDS ALMOST ALWAYS STAY HIGH AND SWEEP RIGHT OVER THE DENSER
NEAR SURFACE AIR. IT WILL BE GUSTY TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
BUT FOR NOW EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. HIGHER IN THE FAR WEST.
THOSE GUSTY S WINDS WILL BULGE THE WATER FURTHER UP THE BAY AND ITS
ESTUARIES...AND THE EARLY FRI HIGH TIDE SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST...
STILL ONLY EXPECTING MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THAT.

THOUGHTS FOR THE PRECIP IS THAT IT WILL MOVE THROUGH AS A THIN BAND
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MIXED IN. NORMALLY WOULD NOT
THINK THERE WOULD BE ANY TSRA AS THE INSTABILITY IS MINOR... HOWEVER
THE FORCING IS STRONG ENUF... THERE COULD BE A TSRA MIXED IN. DURING
AND IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE SHOWERS IS WHEN THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR
WIND IS. THE CONVECTIVE MIXING HAS THE BEST SHOT OF BRINGING THE
STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC. IF THAT IS THE CASE...IT MAY BE BEST
HANDLED WITH SEVERE STORM WARNINGS TOMORROW... AS A HIGH WIND
WARNING WOULD BE FOR WINDS OF AN HOUR OR MORE. TIMING FOR THE FRONT
IS THAT IT SHOULD BE JUST ON OUR WESTERN CWA DOORSTEP AT 1PM... THEN
SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 2 AND 6 PM.

ON THE BACK SIDE THE WINDS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER... ALTHOUGH
AGAIN THINK WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THAT WILL
SURELY BE ENOUGH TO KNOCK DOWN SOME TREES IN THE CWA REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER WE REACH TECHNICAL WARNING CRITERIA OR NOT.

ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...GETTING 50KT OF WIND LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE
WESTERN HIGHLAND AND LESS LIKELY FOR THE LOWLANDS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GFS AND NAM PLACE A NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AT 00Z SATURDAY AND LIFT THE TROUGH RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC BY 12Z SATURDAY. NAM IS APPROXIMATELY 3 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE GFS
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE I-95 CORRIDOR AT 00Z SATURDAY.
THIN WEDGE OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LIFTED INDICES
NEAR 0 C WILL BE TOO FAR TO THE EAST OVER THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
SATURDAY...AND WILL INCLUDE CHANCES FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EXCEPT FOR CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHEASTERN MD.
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
H85 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BETWEEN MINUS 4 AND MINUS 8 C WILL
PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY.
NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING 40+ KT WINDS AT H9 THROUGH
05Z SATURDAY...AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COULD
RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT. WILL
KEEP THE HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY ACROSS THE
CWA. WINDS WILL BECOME LESS ALIGNED FROM THE SFC TO H85 SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WILL END.
DOWNSLOPING WINDS SATURDAY EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND WEAKENING
CAA WILL RESULT IN HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.

RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE CWA IN A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SFC...WHILE AN H5 TROUGH SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY
ALLOWS H85 TEMPERATURES TO FALL 2 TO 3 C. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. H5 TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY...AS NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES AROUND
THE LARGE SFC HIGH IN THE MID MS VALLEY. WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE 3 TO 5 F BELOW NORMAL...AS
TROUGH USHERS IN COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN OH VALLEY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN TN VALLEY TO A POSITION
EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GFS INDICATES AN H5 TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN OH VALLEY
THURSDAY WITH AN INVERTED THROUGH OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN MID ATLANTIC. ECMWF IS MUCH LESS
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE H5 TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP THE PERIOD TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY DRY AT THIS POINT.

AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 09Z WHEN SOME
IFR FOG AND LIFR CIGS WILL MOVE BACK IN. THAT WILL EXIT A BIT
QUICKER FRI MORN THAN PREV MORNINGS WITH THE STRONGER WINDS OFF THE
SFC. GUSTY S SFC WINDS FRI MORN.

MARINE...

ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WINDS ARE WORKING AGAINST THE
STABILITY OF THE LOWER ATMOS AND THE STABILITY INDUCED BY THE COLD
WATERS. THEREFORE THINK THE WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE BORDERLINE OF
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA OF 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE NIGHT. WILL PICKUP
FRI WITH THE INC GRADIENT... BUT IT WILL STILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE
LOW LVL AIR ABOVE THE COLD WATERS.

CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND 40+ KT WINDS AT H9 WILL
ALLOW GALE CONDITIONS...MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FREQUENT WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT...TO CONTINUE THROUGH 05Z. SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CAA AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MARINE WARNING AREA THROUGH 11Z SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR DCZ001.

MD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502.

VA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057.

WV...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR WVZ050>055-501>504.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>537.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>537.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ530-532-535>537.

     GALE WARNING FROM 12 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ530>537.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/CLIMATE/MARINE...SAR
PREV. DISCUSSION...STRONG/SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1026 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-
VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ050>055-501>504-011330-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
1026 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE
EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT
COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY
PROBLEMATIC AREAS ALONG THE SHORES OF THE BAY AND ITS ESTUARIES.
TIDES WILL BE ABOUT ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED MUCH OF THE EAST COAST
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS CLOSER
TO THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN THE NORMALLY
PROBLEMATIC AREAS ALONG THE SHORES OF THE BAY AND ITS ESTUARIES.
TIDES WILL BE ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL.

ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
317 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-VAZ021-025>031-
036>042-050>057-WVZ050>055-501>504-011800-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...
WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...
WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...STAUNTON...
WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...
CHARLOTTESVILLE...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...
MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...
FREDERICKSBURG...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...BAYARD...
PETERSBURG...KITZMILLER...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY
317 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS PLACED THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AT A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. AN EXTREMELY
POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION...REACHING THE ALLEGANY
HIGHLANDS DURING MID AFTERNOON AND THE COAST BY MID EVENING.
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE ARE EXTREMELY STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL MARYLAND...FROM EASTERN ALLEGANY COUNTY TO
NORTHERN MONTGOMERY TO HARFORD...AND A SLIVER OF THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA (NORTHERN MORGAN AND BERKELEY COUNTIES)
HAVE BEEN PLACED AT A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER ARE
POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THESE TO OCCUR WILL BE BETWEEN
4 AND 7 PM.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA - FROM ANNE ARUNDEL MARYLAND
TO CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA HAS
BEEN PLACED AT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE MOST LIKELY
TIME OF THIS WILL BE BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND MID EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.

MONITOR THE MEDIA AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON
THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

ABW/LFR