Flash Flood Warning 75, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
249 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS CENTERED AROUND THE
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CWFA AT THIS TIME. THIS IS
WELL DEPICTED IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AND ALSO EVIDENCED BY THE 12Z
SOUNDING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT TROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND MOVE
DIRECTLY NORTH. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE
NAM. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND STRONGER THAN THE GFS. IN ADDITION...THE
NAM TRACKS THE LOW CENTER STRAIGHT UP THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE GFS
TRACKS THE LOW CENTER ALONG OR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...IT SEEMS TO HAVE
BETTER CONTINUITY. EITHER WAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS ON
THE WAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS AND GUIDANCE SEEM TO
INDICATE ON AVERAGE ANOTHER THREE TO FIVE INCHES WILL BE
LIKELY...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BE NORTH OF THE CWFA BY 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD SPELL THE END OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY ON A LEE TROUGH IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. THE LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE REGION
ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS ANOTHER SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATE WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS IN THE SHORT TERM...TRYING TO REFLECT THE
NEWEST TRENDS IN THE MODELS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REDUCED IN HEAVY RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT. IFR AND EVEN SOME MIFR IS TO BE EXPECTED WITHIN ANY OF
THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BEGIN APPROVING AROUND
SUNRISE TOMORROW AS THE BULK OF THE HEAVY PRECIP PULLS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AREA OF
DISTURBED WX SOUTH OF NC. LATEST FROM NHC IS THAT SYSTEM ONLY HAS A
SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO ITS EAST. WILL GO WITH STRONG SCA
AND GUSTS TO 30 KTS OVER THE BAY AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC.
WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED MORNING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DCZ001 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY.
  ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR DCZ001 FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018 UNTIL
     8 AM WEDNESDAY.
  ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR MDZ007-011-014-016>018 FROM 6 PM
     TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057 UNTIL 8
     AM WEDNESDAY.
  ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR VAZ052>054 FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WVZ048>055 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>537 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY.
 &&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/AVIATION...LISTEMAA
MARINE...ROSA

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