Flash Flood Warning 110, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
453 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FCST UPDATED TO MENTION SVR TSTM WATCH AND INCREASE POPS BASED ON RADAR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 245 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...

WE WL BE ISSUING 06+18Z SNDGS AS LONG AS THE TROP DEP THREATENS.

A PLETHORA OF PSBL WX IN THE NEXT 12 HRS...AND THEN HOPEFULLY THINGS
ON THE IMPROVE FOR WED. HT ADVSRY LOOKS ON TRACK AS INDEX VALUES
ARND 102 ATTM W/ 2-3 MORE HRS TIL MAX IS REACHED. ALL THIS
HT/HUMIDITY IS PROVIDING A TON OF LOW LVL PTNL ENRGY JUST WAITING TO
MOVE SKYWARD. THE TRIGGER HAS MOVED S OF THE CANADIAN BRDR. ALTHO
THE DYNAMICS ARE BETTER WELL TO THE NE...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OF A
BNDRY PROGGED INTO PA TO FIRE STORMS ON. CU HAS FORMED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE KEYSTONE STATE...AND A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THAT ARE ALL THE WAY TO MD BORDER. SPOKE W/ SPC LAST HR...AND THEY
AGREE IT IS WELL WITHIN THE REALM OF PSBLTY THAT OUR AREA WL GET
BOXED LATER THIS AFTN.

SO I HAVE STRIATED THE POPS FM 50 N TO 20 S FOR THE EVE HRS. FOLLOW
ON SHIFT MAY HV TO UPDATE DPENDING UPON HOW THIS PANS OUT.

COOLER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE RGN OVRNGT..BRINGING A STOP TO THE
HIGH HEAT.

WOODY

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

GFS AND NMM WFR SHOW UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC RECEDING TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STILL PRESS INTO SOUTHERN VA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF ME. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 16 AND 18 C. ANOTHER H5
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
WEAK SFC COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...WITH LIFTED INDICES JUST BELOW 0 C. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. DESPITE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...HIGHER H85 TEMPERATURES NEAR
20 C SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 90S IN
THE VALLEYS.

COLD FRONT APPEARS TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY PER THE GFS AND ECMWF...SO WITH BKN TO OVC CLOUD COVER AND
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES BUT NOT AS MUCH AS GUIDANCE. WITH THE FRONT ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION HAVE ALSO INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN CONSIDERABLE
DOUBT WITH MODELS SHOWING DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. ECMWF INDICATED THAT
THE FLAT TROUGH IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE THE GFS AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH AND MOVES IT ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATING MODERATE
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER CLOUD COVER WENT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT LEFT MENTION OF
POPS OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW.

AVIATION...

CNVCTN DURG EVE HRS COULD PROVE PROBLEMATIC. TOOK THE
VSBY TO 3SM IN TRW...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED DEPENDING ON HOW
STORMS DVLP.

MARINE...

TSTMS WL BE THE PTNL PROBLEM THIS EVE. TROP DEP 2 IS 220
NM SE OF HAT. SOME MDLS ARE TRACKING IT INTO LOWER CHES BAY THU.
THIS WL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR DCZ001 UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY FOR MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-016>018 UNTIL 8
     PM TUESDAY.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR VAZ037>042-050>057 UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
322 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-
025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ048>055-191000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ALLEGANY-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-GRANT-MINERAL-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
PENDLETON-HARDY-
322 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE
EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT
COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON
METRO REGION...EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...AND LOWER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND UNTIL 8:00 PM EDT. HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS
EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. NORTHERN
MARYLAND AND A PORTION OF THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE HAVE
BEEN OUTLOOKED AS HAVING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 HAS FORMED SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO
THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY ON THURSDAY...AND BRING TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS INTO THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SMITH

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