Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
255 PM CST SAT APR 1 2006

.SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE IS FINALLY MIXING EAST ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SPLNS
AND PERMIAN BASIN...WITH A BIT OF A BULGE SOUTH OF OUR CWA AS
STRONGER WESTERLY MOMENTUM IS MIXING DOWN IN THAT AREA. WV IMAGERY
AND AREA PROFILERS SHOW A SHARP MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
NM AND FAR WTX. LIFT FROM THIS TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS
AFTN AND EVE. HOWEVER...THIS LIFT IS ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE
CIRRUS SHIELD THAT WILL PLAY SOME ROLE IN RETARDING FURTHER
MIXING/HEATING. 18Z AMA/MAF SNDGS AND WTXM MESONET SNDG FROM REESE
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH LARGE CAPE
AND DECENT SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD BE INCREASING THIS EVE AS LOW-LVL
SRLY WINDS INCREASE. CAP DOES INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH AND MAY LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF AROUND LBB LATITUDE. BEST FOCUS FOR TSTMS STILL
APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS...WITH LOWER
POTENTIAL FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OFF THE CAPROCK. STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY BECOME SVR AND EVEN
PRODUCE AN ISOLD TORNADO ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. PLEASE
SEE MORE INFO ON SVR POTENTIAL VIA HWOLUB...AND SPC PRODUCTS.

TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD END TSTM THREAT BY MIDN.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM SW TO NW SUN MORN AND MAY BE A BIT GUSTY
IN THE MORN HRS BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT IN AND WIND/RH MAY APPROACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CAPROCK BY MIDDAY...HOWEVER FCST WIND SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS ATTM.

.LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO WEST TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING COOLER EASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BACK INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY THEN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS WE SEE
SOME GULF MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PIECE OF JET
ENERGY. WE COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL BE WEDNESDAY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE SHOULD SET UP SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME
STRONGER WINDS AS THE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT PLENTY OF TIME
TO EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN INTO THE 70S
FOR THURSDAY BUT WARMING AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  75  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         50  76  41  69 /  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     52  79  41  70 /  20  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  80  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       52  80  43  73 /  20  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    51  81  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     56  79  48  72 /  50  10   0   0
SPUR          56  82  45  73 /  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  84  50  74 /  30  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

33/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1126 AM CST SAT APR 1 2006

TXZ021>044-021730-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1126 AM CST SAT APR 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
CLARENDON TO MATADOR TO GUTHRIE. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TULIA TO POST.

A DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS
MORNING AND MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS BY MID
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND 2
PM CST ALONG THE DRYLINE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST INTO
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER WIND SHEAR...MAINLY ACROSS THE MODERATE
RISK AREA.

WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH AND ACTIVITY SOUTH OF A
LUBBOCK TO GUTHRIE LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED.
HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP IN THIS AREA MAY ALSO QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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