Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
259 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006

.SHORT TERM...
88D RADAR SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A
SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WITH
A WEAK DISTURBANCE SEEN ON SATELLITE OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HAVE MOVED CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
FOR THIS EVENING. LOWER ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO BE VERY DRY
WITH SURFACE RH ACROSS THE REGION BELOW 15 PERCENT...THUS DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WITH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND NAM CONTINUING TO SHOW INVERTED V TYPE
SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR
SUNDAY FROM TODAY...EXCEPT THAT MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASING TONIGHT...AND THUS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SLIGHTLY. WILL THUS GO SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD INTO TUESDAY WHEN CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER
OFF THE CALIF COAST IS PROGGED TO HAVE OPENED UP AND SHOULD BE
TOPPING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS MAY HELP USHER
A WEAK FRONT INTO THE FCST AREA. WITH SOME RETURN FLOW BEFORE THEN
WE MAY GET ENOUGH MOISTURE BACK TO SET UP A BIT OF A DRYLINE. THIS
COMBINATION PRESENTS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THIS WEEK...ALBEIT
SMALL. INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE LOOKS FINE ATTM. AFTER A BRIEF
RESURGENCE OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY FLOW ALOFT MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE WITH SWLY FLOW RETURNING OVERHEAD FRIDAY. A BIT
SCEPTICAL ATTM IN RELATION TO INHERITED POPS FOR FRIDAY BUT CANNOT
COME UP WITH ENOUGH REASONS TO PULL FROM THE FCST ATTM. WILL
CONTINUE TO FCST TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND AT OR JUST
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  94  63  94 /  30  20  20  10
TULIA         65  93  61  96 /  20  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     64  94  64  96 /  20  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     62  97  63  97 /  20  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       65  97  65  97 /  20  10  20  10
BROWNFIELD    62  99  62  97 /  20  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     68  98  67  98 /  20  10  20  10
SPUR          68  97  66  98 /  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     67  96  68  98 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

08/07

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