Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
355 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT THIS MORNING/S FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BISECTING THE FA. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SHOW INCREASING CONVECTION
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO...AND INCREASING CU OVER THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE. EXPECT A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO ORGANIZE
OVER THOSE REGIONS AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT. SHEAR/INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WIND AND HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

A SECOND SURGE OF COOL/CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED RIDGING WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE FA EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUD COVER AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRIER AIR
WILL ALSO FILTER SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF TOMORROW/S FROPA...SO THE
CHANCE OF STORMS APPEARS TO BE LIMITED EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN FA IN PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD FORCE ANOTHER COOL SURGE THROUGH
THE SOUTH PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS FROM THE NORTH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST BY FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS TO END THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT STOUT RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALLOW DAYTIME MAXIMA TO WARM INTO THE 80S TO
NEAR 90 BY SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTH
PLAINS LATER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
SHARPENING OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. IF THIS SUMMER LIKE PATTERN
VERIFIES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
DESTABILIZATION ALOFT OCCURRING AS COLD AIR INTRUDES ALOFT.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO/SE
COLORADO COULD AFFECT THE REGION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME. ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. CONFIDENCE
STILL TOO LOW FOR ELEVATED MENTION.

LONG RANGE GFS KEEPS THE SHARP NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PATTERN WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AFFECTING THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TODAY. KW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  74  47  73 /  40  10  10  10
TULIA         51  73  49  73 /  40  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     52  74  50  71 /  30  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     52  77  51  74 /  20  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       54  78  52  77 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    56  84  53  74 /  10  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     56  77  53  76 /  50  20  10   0
SPUR          57  81  54  73 /  20  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     61  82  54  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

20/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1149 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

TXZ021>044-101700-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1149 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT.
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
TULIA TO PADUCAH. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A GROUP OF STRONG
OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS LATE IN THE EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT BECOMING MORE
LIKELY LATE AS THE SYSTEM MATURES AND MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING IN THE RISK AREA.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>