Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Lubbock, TX

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1127 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

TXZ021>044-041630-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1127 AM CDT WED MAY 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE MODERATE
RISK IS GENERALLY EAST OF A SILVERTON TO LAKE ALAN HENRY LINE. THE
SLIGHT RISK ENCOMPASSES THE REMAINDER OF AN AREA EAST OF A
DIMMITT TO TAHOKA LINE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH PLAINS AREA...LIKELY NEAR A MULESHOE TO MEMPHIS LINE BY
3 PM. IN ADDITION THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE INTERSTATE
27 CORRIDOR. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH MODEST WINDS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT MOSTLY IN MULTICELLULAR
ORGANIZATION WITH SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ALSO POSSIBLE. THUS
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND EAST OF A
MULESHOE TO LEVELLAND TO POST LINE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH ANY PREEXISTING
BOUNDARIES...AND A REINFORCING FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
ALL BE POTENTIAL FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. GIVEN
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.

ADDITIONALLY...THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE REGION.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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