Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
327 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW AT 3 PM CDT WAS LOCATED NEAR EL PASO. THE 18Z RUC TAKES IT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO NEAR TX/NM BORDER WEST OF LBB BY MIDN...THIS IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER/FURTHER SOUTH THAN 12Z NAM. MEANWHILE...THE MORNING
MODEL RUNS HANDLED THE PUSH OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES
PRETTY WELL...AS IT HAS MADE IT EAST INTO BORDEN...GARZA AND DICKENS
COUNTIES WITH SCATTERED TSTMS AHEAD OF THIS LINE. AND THE PANHANDLE
COLD FRONT HAS BEEN REINFORCED/PUSHED SOUTH BY TSTM OUTFLOW. AT 3
PM...FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR MORTON TO NEAR PLAINVIEW. THE
WESTERN EXTENT HAS STALLED TEMPORARILY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASE SVR-TSTMS APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ACROSS
THE CWA. THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS HAS
WORKED OVER THE ATMOS IN THIS AREA...WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF
EASTERN STONEWALL COUNTY. THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS STILL SHOWS SOME
SFC-BASED CAPE OF ABOUT APPROX 2K J/KG. SFC CONVERGENCE IS ALSO
INDICATED ALONG THE CAPROCK IN BRISCOE/MOTLEY/FLOYD COUNTIES AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE AREA FROM SILVERTON TO CHILDRESS TO PADUCAH HAS THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED SVR. ALTHOUGH TO SOME DEGREE THE
INFLOW IN THIS AREA WILL PROBABLY BE ROBBED BY ACTIVITY TO THE
SOUTH. ISOLATED TORNADO DVLPMNT ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA
DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT/CAPROCK INTERSECTION.

WITH CONTINUED LIFT SUPPLIED BY COLD FRONT AND THE UPR-LOW TO THE
WEST...EXPECT ELEVATED TSTM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY AROUND 8 OR 9 PM. THE SRN
EXTENT OF THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY THIS EVE WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
PATH OF THE UPPER-LOW....WITH THE NRN COUNTIES FAVORED AND CURRENTLY
ONLY LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE SRN COUNTIES...BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE PATH OF THE UPR LOW.

LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY HANG ON INTO THE MORNING HRS ACROSS
THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
SAT WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S. WINDS MAY COME UP INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 AFTER SUNRISE AS GOOD PRESSURE RISES ARE
INDICATED BEHIND THE FRONT. STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD GIVE RISE TO CU
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE TOO
LIMITED FOR ANY SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...
NWLY FLOW ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXCEPTION
IS SOME WEAK RIDGING ABOUT WEDNESDAY. DESPITE RIDGING GFS IS MORE
BULLISH THIS RUN WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND IS BREAKING OUT SOME LIGHT
QPF IN RESPONSE. HOWEVER IT IS ALSO HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS MAKING ITS TOTAL QPF UNREASONABLE. WILL ALSO HAVE TO DEAL
WITH THE POSSIBLITY OF A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTAL INTRUSIONS AND HOW
FAR SOUTH THEY PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN TREND OF THE GFS THINK
IT IS PRUDENT TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MIDWEEK. WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH PRECIP POTENTIAL BEHIND LATE WEEK FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN FCST ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  67  44  80 /  50  10  10   0
TULIA         45  66  43  81 /  60  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     46  67  44  83 /  50  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     45  68  46  86 /  40  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       46  70  47  85 /  40  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    48  71  48  87 /  30  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     51  70  48  84 /  80  20  10  10
SPUR          50  72  47  87 /  60  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     53  74  50  88 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

33/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

TXZ021>044-291645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1133 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TULIA TO POST.

A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. A DEVELOPING DRYLINE
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST TO AN APPROXIMATELY TULIA TO POST LINE BY AROUND 3 PM.
ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. FORECAST INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS...WHERE THE WIND WILL
REMAIN BACKED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. TORNADO DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE DEPENDANT ON SUFFICIENT CLEARING AND HEATING DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1232 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

TXZ037-043-281845-
DICKENS-KENT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DICKENS...SPUR...JAYTON
1232 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

...THUNDERSTORMS STRENGTHEN NEAR SPUR AND GIRARD...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN KENT AND
SOUTHERN DICKENS COUNTIES. THESE STORMS LIKELY HAVE HAIL UP TO ONE
HALF INCH DIAMETER...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH IN LESS
THAN AN HOUR. THESE STORMS MAY STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS THEY MOVE
SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SPUR AND GIRARD AREAS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR HERE FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
117 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

TXZ022-023-281930-
CASTRO-SWISHER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DIMMITT...HART...TULIA
117 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

...THUNDERSTORMS STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHEAST CASTRO COUNTY...

VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST CASTRO
COUNTY...NORTH OF NAZARETH NEAR ARNEY. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE HAPPY AREA IN NORTHERN SWISHER
COUNTY. THESE STORMS MAY HAVE HAIL NEAR ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER...
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH IN LESS THAN AN HOUR...AND WIND
GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. THESE STORMS MAY STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS THEY
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN SWISHER
COUNTY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR HERE FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
128 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     HAIL             10 SW GUTHRIE           33.53N 100.45W
04/28/2006  E1.00 INCH       KING               TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MARBLE TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

RCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
205 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             GUTHRIE                 33.63N 100.32W
04/28/2006  E0.75 INCH       KING               TX   POST OFFICE

&&

RCB

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