Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
345 PM CDT THU SEP 14 2006

.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILERS SHOWING UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROTATING NEWD OUT OF SERN NEW MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN
TO DEVELOP FROM THE WRN PANHANDLE INTO THE NERN PERMIAN BASIN.
EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROTATE NEWD
ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH THE UPPER WAVE WITH GRADIENT FROM
NON-MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE SW TO CHC POPS EAST. WILL GO AHEAD AND
MAINTAIN THE 10 PCT POPS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT THE WAVE WILL MOVE OUT IN A TIMELY MANNER. AM A BIT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE SPEED OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM
IMPINGING ON THE AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...BUT WILL TREND
TOWARD PREVIOUS TIMING COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING AND LOW LEVEL SFC
CONVERGENCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE CLOSE. A
LITTLE SEPARATION WITH HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD COOLER
SIDE GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE IN POST HEAVY RAIN ENVIRONMENT.

.LONG TERM...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS LARGE UPPER
LOW MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...EXITING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY. PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM BAJA
WILL LIKELY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
AND SE PANHANDLE WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
AS MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST...HEIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS REALIZED FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST SSW INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE DEPICTING
FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH AT THIS EARLY STAGE SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING
DIFFERENCES CAN BE EXPECTED. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DROPPED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FURTHER
INTO THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S NW TO SE FOR SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY PERHAPS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GFS IS NOW BRINGING ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON SOUTH SIDE
OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...AND THAT COULD RESULT
IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR...BUT PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS TO
REMAIN LOW. THAT LIKELY TO BE FOLLOWED BY MORE ZONAL NW FLOW AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  89  59  88 /  20  20  20  10
TULIA         61  88  63  88 /  20  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     61  89  63  90 /  20  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     60  90  62  91 /  20  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       66  89  67  91 /  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    63  89  65  92 /  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     66  91  69  95 /  30  10  20  20
SPUR          63  91  67  94 /  30  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     65  94  72  96 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

07/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
440 PM CDT THU SEP 14 2006

TXZ021>044-150800-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
440 PM CDT THU SEP 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE THOSE LOCALES WEST OF INTERSTATE 27/U.S. HIGHWAY 87.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
454 PM CDT THU SEP 14 2006

TXZ028-142230-
LAMB TX-
454 PM CDT THU SEP 14 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS LAMB COUNTY...

AT 452 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE MONITORING
AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORMS 10 MILES NORTH OF LITTLEFIELD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 385 NORTH OF LITTLEFIELD.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.