Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1208 PM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COMPLICATED...BUT LIKELY
ACTIVE...WEATHER SITUATION FOR LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. AN UPDATE IS
BEING ISSUED TO ADJUST THE ORIENTATION OF SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION NORTH/EAST OF THE FA HAS
RESULTED IN A SHALLOW BUT EFFECTIVE WIND SHIFT. RADAR MOSAIC/WEST
TEXAS MESONET SHOW THIS FEATURE STRETCHED FROM NEAR BROWNFIELD TO
ROARING SPRINGS...WITH A WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY CENTERED NEAR
SILVERTON. A SHARP WIND SHIFT IS THEN NOTED FROM SOUTHEAST OF
AMARILLO TO SOUTH OF CHILDRESS.

EXPECT THESE BOUNDARIES TO MODIFY AS INSOLATION/DEEP MIXING
CONTINUES. HOWEVER...CURRENT ALIGNMENT OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES/
CONVERGENCE SUGGEST SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO INITIATE
NORTH/EAST OF LUBBOCK AS FORCING/ASCENT INCREASES AIDED BY WAVES/
SPEED MAXIMA NOTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY. STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS/LAPS DEPICT MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH CAPES
ON THE ORDER OF 1500J/KG OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE.
ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK... PROFILES VEER
SUFFICIENTLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION/
SEVERITY. WE AGREE WITH SPC/S DAY 1 OUTLOOK... AND HAVE INCLUDED
A MENTION OF SEVERE IN ALL PRODUCTS FOR THESE ZONES. THAT MENTION HAS
BEEN EXTENDED SOUTH/WEST A BIT IN VICINITY OF PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

20/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006

TXZ021>044-110600-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE...THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...AND THE NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER THAT EVOLVES THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE
LARGE HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

A NUMBER OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFTS STRETCH OVER THE AREA AS OF MID
DAY. A NOTABLE AREA OF CONVERGING WINDS WEST OF CHILDRESS MAY
PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN CHILDRESS AND LUBBOCK
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT IN THIS AREA IS FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS...AND MAY PROMOTE A LOCALLY ENHANCED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
229 PM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006

TXZ031-032-102015-
MOTLEY TX-COTTLE TX-
229 PM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COTTLE AND MOTLEY COUNTIES...

AT 225 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE MONITORING
INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORMS FROM JUST EAST OF MATADOR TO NEAR
PADUCAH...GENERALLY ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 62/70 . THESE STORMS WERE
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.