Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
400 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

.SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL OUTFLOW WENT SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING
AND IS CURRENTLY STALLED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG
COUNTRY...WHERE TSTMS ARE RAPIDLY FORMING. MEANWHILE...CD FRONT IS
PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND AT 3 PM STRETCHED FROM
ROUGHLY A FRIONA...TO CANYON TO CLARENDON LINE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE HAS REINFORCED THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CWA...AND COMBINED WITH A CONVERGENT SFC
WINDS HAS CREATED A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR SEVERAL TSTMS TO DEVELOP.
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGH THE EARLY EVE HRS. EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR TSTMS...MAINLY WIND THREAT...TO BE CONFINED TO
THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE CAPES APPROACH
3000...ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AND THUS ANY SVR TSTMS
SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED MULTI-CELL TYPES. ELSEWHERE WV IMAGERY AND
SNDGS SHOW A VERY RICH MOISTURE PROFILE IN PLACE ACROSS WTX WHICH
WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH
INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS WILL TRACK NE AT 20 MPH OR
SO...REDEVELOPMENT/TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT...MAY CAUSE FLOODING. CURRENT FCST TRENDS SEEM
TO INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHCS OF PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO THE ROLLING
PLAINS THIS EVE...IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT RECEIVED A LOT OF RAINFALL
RECENTLY SO HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME. DID BEEF-UP POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROLLING PLAINS
OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 50.

AS H5 LOW/TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE COLO AND INTO NM ON SUN WTX WILL
REMAIN IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H3 ULJ...CREATING SOME
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT. ENOUGH UNCERTAINLY WITH THE
LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO PRECLUDE ZEROING IN ON AN
PARTICULAR AREA SO HAVE GONE WITH BLANKET COVERAGE OF HIGH CHCS
WITH A SLIGHT EMPHASIS ON THE ROLLING PLAINS. GIVEN FCST OF CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA TSTM INTENSITY SHOULD
BE LESS THAN TDY.

.LONG TERM...
WET PERIOD UPCOMING AS UPPER LEVEL LOW TRANSLATES EASTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH TRAILING UPPER TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY...INTERACTING WITH VERY MOIST LOWER TO MID ATMOSPHERE. THERE
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND PRECIPITATION AREA WITH
GFS MOVING MAIN AXIS OF RAIN FARTHER SOUTH FROM PERMIAN BASIN NE
INTO NORTH TEXAS BY 12Z MONDAY. THE WRF KEEPS PRECIPITATION BACK
FARTHER NORTH...EVEN NORTH OF 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IN REGION OF
300 MB JET ENTRANCE REGION. THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AND KEPT POPS
FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE
FLOODING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY. MAY HAVE TO UP POPS
THROUGH TUESDAY AS BOTH GFS AND WRF ARE NOW KEEPING SHOWERS BACK
ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER IN REGION OF 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE. LIKELY
TO SEE SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING MIDWEEK WITH NEXT UPPER TROUGH
INDUCING HEIGHT FALLS AND FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW ANOTHER FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTH AND INTERACT WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE STILL A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAKING A RUN BACK INTO THE 90S LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  84  62  81 /  60  40  50  30
TULIA         62  84  63  83 /  70  50  50  50
PLAINVIEW     63  87  63  83 /  70  50  60  50
LEVELLAND     65  87  64  83 /  60  50  70  50
LUBBOCK       68  87  65  83 /  60  50  70  50
BROWNFIELD    69  88  65  84 /  60  50  70  50
CHILDRESS     71  89  68  86 /  70  60  70  60
SPUR          71  90  67  85 /  70  50  70  60
ASPERMONT     71  93  70  86 /  70  50  60  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

33/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
612 AM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

TXZ021>044-271115-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
612 AM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING

LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE COVERAGE AREA AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. IF THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SPOTTER GROUPS AND
LOCAL AUTHORITIES ARE URGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN LUBBOCK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
342 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

TXZ041-262115-
LYNN TX-
342 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS LYNN COUNTY...

AT 338 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF TAHOKA...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 5 MPH. UP TO INCH INCH OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS UP 50 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM
IN THE TAHOKA AREA.

BRIEF...STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MOVE TO A
PLACE OF SAFETY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. AVOID NORMAL FLOOD-PRONE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS
FLOODED ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
509 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

TXZ032-262245-
COTTLE TX-
509 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS COTTLE COUNTY...

AT 508 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE MONITORING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MOTLEY COUNTY. THIS STORM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH...AND MAY IMPACT COTTLE COUNTY BY 530 PM.

STRONG WIND GUSTS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THESE
STORMS. REMAIN ALERT AND MONITOR FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.