Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
237 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

.SHORT TERM...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT RAPIDLY FORMED DURG PAST HR ALONG OUTFLOW
BNDRY WHICH EXTENDS ALONG CAPROCK ESCARPMENT FROM EAST OF HAPPY TO
WHITE RIVER LAKE. OTHER STORMS ARE ALSO IGNITING FM MULESHOE TO
LITTLEFIELD. MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NR THE OUTFLOW BNDRY
NEXT FEW HRS WITH STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLY CONTAINING 1/2 TO 1 INCH
HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS NR 50 MPH. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR HEAVY RAINS/MINOR FLOODING BECOMING A CONCERN AS PWATS ARE NR
1.50 INCHES IN THIS JUICED UP AIRMASS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR MCS TO AFFECT THE CWA TONIGHT HAS INCREASED
WITH MODEL CONTINUITY AND SCT STORMS HAVING ALREADY FIRED ALONG
SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE. THESE STORMS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES AND CONGEAL INTO A MATURE MCS. MAIN THREAT WILL
BE INITIAL OUTFLOW AHEAD OF COMPLEX WITH WINDS NR SEVERE LEVELS.
EVENING/NIGHT SHIFT WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG WINDS IN WAKE
OF COMPLEX...AS MESO HIGH STRENGTHENS. HOPEFULLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL
FINALLY PROVIDE WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINS.

MCS SHOULD BE SLOWLY DISSIPATING BY SUNRISE WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
ENDING SHORTLY AFTER OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY WILL AIDE
IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE COMING WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS STRONGLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE
DESERT. MOIST LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD COMPLIMENT
WITH CONSISTENT SIGNALS FOR WEAKNESSES DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THE RIDGE INITIATING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY...MOSTLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN SOMEWHERE TO OUR WEST OR NORTHWEST MOVING SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE SET-UP PATTERN IS
SYNOPTIC SCALE AND SOMEWHAT PREDICTABLE...THE REAL WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED BY SMALL MESO-SCALE EVENTS THAT ARE HIGHLY UNPREDICTABLE
MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO OUT.

FOCUSING INITIALLY ON POTENTIAL FOR NEXT CONVECTIVE EVENT FRIDAY
NIGHT...WE ARE SEEING SOME CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING RIDGE BULGING OUT
A BIT EAST CAUSING MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW AND ALSO INITIATION
OVER LEFT-OVER BOUNDARY VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
FOLLOWING WHAT SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE EVENT LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAKES
SENSE AND PREVIOUS TRENDS WERE RETAINED. LATER...ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT
MAY HOLD MORE NORTHERLY THAN WESTERLY COMPONENT...CONFIDENCE LESSENS
AGAIN IN THE DETAILED REAL WEATHER. LATEST RUNS...FOR EXAMPLE...NOW
SHOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW REFLECTED OVER SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THEREFORE...ALSO LITTLE REASON TO DIVERGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
LATER IN THE EXTENDED.

IF THIS TURNS INTO A NORMAL SUMMER WESTERN RIDGE PATTERN...WE WOULD
EXPECT THE RIDGE TO EVENTUALLY BULGE NORTHWARD OUT ACROSS THE FAR WEST
AND THEN ROCKIES BEFORE BENDING OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATE NEXT
WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE LONG TERM GFS AND
ALSO BY A NUMBER OF DAYS CONSISTENT ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. THUS...
PERHAPS A DRYING AND WARMING WOULD BE CALLED FOR BEYOND DAY SEVEN.
UNTIL THEN...A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH
MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR A CHANGE.  MCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  85  63  92 /  80  30  30  10
TULIA         64  85  63  90 /  80  30  30  10
PLAINVIEW     65  86  66  88 /  80  30  30  10
LEVELLAND     65  87  66  90 /  70  40  30  10
LUBBOCK       67  87  67  90 /  70  50  30  10
BROWNFIELD    68  88  66  90 /  60  50  40  20
CHILDRESS     68  87  68  91 /  80  50  20  10
SPUR          68  87  67  92 /  70  60  30  20
ASPERMONT     70  89  69  94 /  70  60  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

21/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1124 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

TXZ021>044-231630-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1124 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
WILL BE LOCATED FROM NEAR DIMMITT TO MATADOR TO PADUCAH.
ELSEWHERE...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY STORMS...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

LATER THIS EVENING...AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY PRESENT A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS...MAINLY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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