Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
355 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

.SHORT TERM...
PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BENDING
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ALL DAY AND MODEST
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE HIGH 40S TO LOWER 50S REMAIN ACROSS THIS
REGION. THE LATEST RUC HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT AND CORRECT SHOWING
THESE MIXED DEWPOINTS AND BREAKING OUT PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. GFS INDICATES THE BATCH TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS WELL...PERHAPS HAVING AN IMPACT INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND
EVEN WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES LATER IN THE EVENING AS LOWER LEVELS
WINDS BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANYWAY...WE WILL RETAIN PREVIOUS
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE CAPES AND
LOW SHEAR WITH HIGH BASES STILL SPELL A WIND GUST THREAT...AND A
LOWER HAIL THREAT...AS IN THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST. RIDGE HEIGHTS
SHOULD DIP A BIT MORE ON THURSDAY AS RIDGE BEGINS TO REFORM FURTHER
WEST...ALLOWING A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF STORMS
LATE IN THE DAY. THICKNESS COOLING ALSO SHOULD ALLOW ABOUT 3 DEGREES
COOLING FROM TODAY MOST AREAS. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS
TEMPERATURE GRIDS.  MCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UPWARD AS THURSDAY EVENING PROGRESSES
WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
CWA. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD
RESULT IN MCS DEVELOPMENT ACRS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY THE
EVENING HRS. FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SEND COMPLEX OF STORMS
SOUTHEAST WITH BEST CHC OF WETTING RAINS ACRS THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE CWA. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LARGER
HAIL EARLY THEN OUTFLOW WINDS LATER AS MCS MATURES. WILL BUMP UP
POPS IN THE KCDS VCNTY TO NR 60 PERCENT.

OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVG ON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FINALLY ARRIVING FOR FRI AND SAT. DID NOT
GO AS COOL AS GFS/NAM WRF NUMBERS...WITH UNCERTAINTY IN LINGERING
CLOUD COVER AND POST FRONTAL PRECIP. BEST PRECIP CHANCE TO SHIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG FRONT FOR FRIDAY EVENING.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WHICH FEATURES SLOW WARM-UP
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW POPS DURG THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HRS LOOK FINE WITH POSSIBLE MCS ACTIVITY ROLLING IN FROM NEW
MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  94  65  88 /  40  30  40  20
TULIA         66  90  66  86 /  30  20  50  30
PLAINVIEW     66  93  67  88 /  30  20  40  30
LEVELLAND     66  94  66  90 /  30  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       70  94  68  90 /  20  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    66  94  67  91 /  30  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     70  92  69  89 /  20  20  60  30
SPUR          68  93  70  89 /  10  10  30  30
ASPERMONT     69  93  73  90 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

05/21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

TXZ021>044-221700-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1147 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...
WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE A LESSER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. SEVERE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.