Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
333 AM CDT THU APR 20 2006

.SHORT TERM...
COMPLEX PATTERN AS NEARLY CLOUD-FREE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY EDGING THROUGH EASTERN ARIZONA IS FORECAST TO CYCLE ACROSS
THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING. STATIONARY SLOPED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR RE-DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS ALL NIGHT. AND WHILE THE RESULTING COOL OUTFLOW HAS
HELPED RE-ENFORCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA...
THE KLBB WSR-88D RADAR INDICATES THAT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS
BEEN INCREASING AND DEEPENING ABOVE THE SURFACE. INFRA-RED SATELLITE
ALSO INDICATES THIS WARM ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF THE
FOCI OF THUNDERSTORMS AND IS SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SHOWING STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE YET TO RESPOND...AND
ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING A BIT DRIER THAN EVEN THE NAM SO FAR. WE
BELIEVE THAT THIS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL INCREASE FURTHER LATER
THIS MORNING AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND REGION ENTERS INCREASING
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO ELEVATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS...BUT BY MIDDAY WE BELIEVE AIRMASS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA.

WE HAVE THUS USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM AND GFS WITH THE
PREVIOUS GRIDDED FORECAST TO INDICATE HIGH SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MIDDAY. ELEVATED
CAPES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUGGEST A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL BEFORE
COOLER OUTFLOWS SHOVE THE DEEPEST UNSTABLE LAYER FURTHER SOUTH ONCE
AGAIN LATER TODAY. THIS SHOULD LEAVE GENERAL THUNDER OR SHOWERS OVER
THE REGION THIS EVENING AS UPPER FORCING TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA. MAINTAINED MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IN PARTICULAR
THE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST FORECAST.  EXPANDED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF TOTALS A BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST AND NORTH LATER
TODAY. SYSTEM SHOULD CLEAR TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT WITH DECREASING
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUDS MUCH AS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. OMEGA BLOCK OVER
WESTERN HALF OF THE NATION WITH STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVING OUT
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OUT OF WESTERN MEXICO INTO THE
ROCKIES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST
...INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF LOWS SLIDE
DOWN OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA...CARVING OUT AT TROUGH ALONG
THE WEST COAST. MODELS DIFFER SOME WITH NEXT CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING OVER CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY...HOWEVER THEY ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR ON MOVING IT TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
BY TUESDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS NEAR
THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH A FEW IMPULSES
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION GRIDS LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  45  76  49 /  40  40   0   0
TULIA         64  46  79  51 /  50  50  10   0
PLAINVIEW     65  47  78  51 /  60  60  10   0
LEVELLAND     67  48  80  52 /  60  60  10   0
LUBBOCK       66  49  79  55 /  60  60  10   0
BROWNFIELD    69  49  81  53 /  60  60  10   0
CHILDRESS     66  51  79  55 /  60  60  10   0
SPUR          65  50  79  55 /  60  60  10   0
ASPERMONT     67  52  79  57 /  60  60  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

05/08

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