Red Flag Warning 19, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
314 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER WINDY DAY IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO PULL OUT AND FLOW AROUND IT
WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. GUIDANCE TAKES THE LOW SE INTO EASTERN
OKLA DURING THE DAY WITH STRONG NWERLY WINDS EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN
OKLA AND INTO WTX. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NE
COLO AND NW KS AT 07Z WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NRN CWA BY LATE
MORNING AND BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NW TO THE NORTH AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER INCREASE IN WIND SPEED...COOLER TEMPS...
SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR...AND PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS.

THERE IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MAV/MET HIGH TEMPS FOR
TODAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR. HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE COOLER MET AS FRONT AND COOL AIR LOOK
IMPRESSIVE ACROSS NE COLO/SRN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. IF FRONT IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN EXPECTED THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS WILL PROBABLY
VERIFY.

REGIONAL PROFILER ANALYSIS SHOWS 50 KTS AROUND 700 MB STRETCHING
FROM NE NEW MEXICO INTO CENTRAL OKLA. THIS BAND SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT
SE THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY PUT THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROLLING
PLAINS UNDER THE GUN FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME FOR STRONG WINDS.
THUS WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT
BUT HOLD OFF ELSEWHERE. WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ONCE MIXING COMMENCES THIS
MORNING BUT HOPEFULLY THEY WILL ONLY PUSH CRITERIA BRIEFLY BEFORE
TEMPORARILY RELAXING UNTIL FROPA.

GUIDANCE ALSO HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW CLOUD FIELD MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE
UPPED SKY COVER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR THIS EVE THRU TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
RIDGING ALOFT THIS WEEKEND SHIFT EWD AS TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
COAST DEVELOPS FURTHER. SWLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH TROUGH WELL BACK TO OUR WEST WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP
GENERATION. SHOULD SEE THE DRYLINE REDEVELOP MONDAY AND THEN SPEND
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SLOSHING ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE CAPROCK AND
FURTHER EAST INTO NW TEXAS. HOWEVER CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION APPEAR SMALL GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE CAP. FOR
TEMPS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE. FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE
FCST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHILE A DECENT NORTH-SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT (AND A LONGER
PERIOD OF DRY WESTERLY FLOW) SHOULD PRODUCE THE LOWEST RH/S ACROSS
THE SRN HALF. WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE SRN HALF FROM 11
AM TO 7 PM CDT. DESPITE THE FCST OF 20-FT WIND TO ONLY MARGINALLY
MEET THE SPEED AND TEMPORAL CRITERIA...THE CONTINUING VERY DRY
CONDITIONS AND IMPENDING FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL
PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOUR. HAVE
DROPPED THE NRN ROW OF COUNTIES FROM THE FIRE WX WATCH AS IT APPEARS
THAT THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE RH
VALUES DURING THE AFTN...HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG WINDS FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  33  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         68  34  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     70  35  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     72  36  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       73  36  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    76  37  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     71  38  66  44 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          76  40  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     80  41  68  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRISCOE...CHILDRESS...COTTLE...DICKENS...FLOYD...HALL...
KING...AND MOTLEY.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COCHRAN...CROSBY...DICKENS...GARZA...HOCKLEY...
KENT...KING...LUBBOCK...LYNN...STONEWALL...TERRY...AND YOAKUM.

&&

33/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1012 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

TXZ027>044-080315-
BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-
CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1012 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE RFWLUB ISSUED BY
THIS OFFICE AT 927 PM.

A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION BY MID MORNING FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TXZ021>026-080315-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-
1012 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION BY MID MORNING FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

KW