Severe Thunderstorm Warning 531, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 231322
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
820 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

MOC179-231330-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0531.000000T0000Z-060923T1345Z/
REYNOLDS MO-
820 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR REYNOLDS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3763 9077 3726 9076 3735 9017 3764 9017
      3782 9043

$$

MOC093-123-187-231345-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0531.000000T0000Z-060923T1345Z/
MADISON MO-IRON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-
820 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN ST. FRANCOIS...EASTERN IRON AND MADISON COUNTIES...

AT 818 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR IRONTON...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  THIS STORM DOWNED TREES IN THE ELLINGTON AREA 
IN SOUTHERN REYNOLDS COUNTY.   

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
IRON MOUNTAIN...ROSELLE...DOE RUN...KNOB LICK...FARMINGTON...MINE LA
MOTTE AND LIBERTYVILLE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

LAT...LON 3763 9077 3726 9076 3735 9017 3764 9017
      3782 9043

$$

TRUETT

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 231346
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
846 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

MOC093-123-187-231356-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0531.000000T0000Z-060923T1345Z/
MADISON MO-IRON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-
846 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ST. FRANCOIS...
EASTERN IRON AND MADISON COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 845 AM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3763 9077 3726 9076 3735 9017 3764 9017
      3782 9043

$$

TRUETT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
716 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN DILEMMA FOR TDAS FCST IS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT THE WALL
OF WATER FROM NE OK TO W KY IS GOING TO DO TO THE PCPN CHCS AND
SVR WX THRT OVR THE SE HLF OF FA. WV ALG CDFNT NOW MOVING INTO NE OK
HAS BGN TO GENERATE THE NXT ROUND OF CNVTN...AND XTRAP OF N EDGE
OF THIS PCPN TAKES IT TO NR A KVIH...KSPI LN DURG THE MRNG. WITH
OUTFLO BNDRY RMNG SO ACTIVE OVR N AR AM SMWHAT SKEPTICAL THAT HVY
RAIN WL GET THAT FAR N...BUT SINCE MDLS HV PEGGED THIS REDVLPMT HV
MENTIONED HVY RAINS ALG AND S OF ABV MENTIONED LINE FOR THIS MRNG.
SM AREAS OF E OZARKS CULD GET OVR AN INCH OF RAIN THIS MRNG...BUT
SINCE YSTDAS HVY RAIN IN OUR FA WAS VRY SPOTTY THINK THAT MOST
AREAS SHUD BE ABLE TO HOLD THIS RAINFALL. AS FAR AS SVR WX THRT
WITH THIS FIRST ROUND OF CNVTN...BLV THAT IT WL PRIMARILY STAY S
OF OUR AREA...IN VCNTY OF OUTFLO BNDRY NR AR/MO BDR.

AFT THIS MRNGS FIRST WV OF CNVTN PASSES THRU THE SE HLF OF
FA...QUESTION BCMS HOW MUCH AND HOW INTS REDVLPMT WL OCR AHD OF
CDFNT DURG THE AFTN. BLV THAT MRNG CNVTN/RAIN COOLED AMS/CLD CVR IS
REALLY GOING TO INHIBIT DESTABLIZATION DURG THE ERY AND MID AFTN
HRS...SO WHILE CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT REDVLPMNT BGNG TO THINK
THAT INTENSITY MAY BE LIMITED. NAM FCSTS MLCAPES TO REBOUND TO
ARND 400 J/KG BY LT AFTN...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND LATEST RUC INCR
CAPES INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. OTHER QUESTION IS WHERE THE
CDFNT WL BE DURG AFTN. IF GFS IS CORRECT FNT WL BE EXITING OUR FA
IN THE 18- 20Z TIME FRAME...PLACING MAIN THRT OF AFTN DVLPMT E OF
OUR AREA. FOR THE TIME BEING HV GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM
FOR THIS AFTN PARAMETERS...AND KEPT POPS HI.

MEANWHILE...SHWRS ASSOC WITH MAIN TROF IN COOLER AIR OVR E KS/NW
MO SHUD MV ACR NW SECTIONS OF THE FA DURG THE MRNG. KEPT A LO POP
GOING IN THESE AREAS DURG AFTN...BUT EVEN THESE LO POPS MAY BE A
BIT TOO HI IF MID LVL DRY SLOT EVOLVES AS DEPICTED BY GFS AND NAM.

WITH THE UPR LO AND TROF FINALLY BGNG TO MOVE COOLER AND MORE
STBL AMS SHUD BE ADV INTO THE MID MSVLY THIS AFTN AND TNGT. THIS
MEANS THAT ANY CNVTN THAT DOES REFORM OVR SE MO/S IL THIS AFTN
SHUD BE EXITING OUR FA BY ERY THIS EVE...AND ANY LINGERING SHWRS
IN THE COOLER AIR SHUD DSPT AS WELL. CERTAINLY...COOLER AND MORE
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR MOST OF TNGT AND
SUN...ALTHO MDL RH PROGS SUGGEST A GD DEAL OF LO LVL CLDNS
SPREADING ACR AREA LT TNGT AND SUN...AND CULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES
AS WELL.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
SURFACE FRONT LIES ALONG A LINE FROM KPIA TO KAIZ TO KSGF...AND
WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY. CIGS AND
VSBYS HAVE BEEN...DIFFICULT...THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY FOR THE ST.
LOUIS METRO TERMINALS. CANT SAY I KNOW EXACTLY WHATS GOING
ON...BUT I THINK ITS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS HAVE TURNED BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION EAST OF THE
FRONT WITH PLENTY OF JUICY AIR STREAMING BACK INTO THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED ALONG THE I-44
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE OFF AND ON UNTIL THE FRONT
CLEARS THE CWFA. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS STILL FURTHER SOUTH IN
FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS...SO THE STRONGEST STORMS
SHOULD STAY OUT OF ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE CWFA. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 14-15Z
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. COULD SEE MARGINAL OR IFR CONDITIONS RETURN
LATE IN THE PERIOD AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
650 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

ILZ095>097-MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036-041-042-047>051-241100-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOONE-BROWN-CALLAWAY-COLE-KNOX-LEWIS-MARION-
MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-SHELBY-
650 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...CENTRAL MISSOURI...EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-098>102-MOZ052-059>065-072>075-
084-085-099-241100-
BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-
GREENE IL-IRON-JEFFERSON-JERSEY IL-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-
MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-
ST CHARLES-ST CLAIR IL-ST FRANCOIS-ST LOUIS-ST LOUIS CITY-
STE GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
650 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

ONE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...DURING THE MORNING.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS THAT OCCUR
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CENTERVILLE...FARMINGTON...SPARTA LINE.

THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. IF THE AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT CAN DESTABILIZE ENOUGH...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE AND PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

TRUETT