Severe Thunderstorm Warning 516, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 101902
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
159 PM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006

MOC099-101915-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0516.000000T0000Z-060910T1915Z/
JEFFERSON MO-
159 PM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...

AT 153 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF DE SOTO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. 
THE ORIGINAL STORM THAT WAS WARNED ON NEAR FLETCHER HAS WEAKENED SOME
...BUT WILL STILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND HILLSBORO.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
INCLUDE...VICTORIA...HEMATITE...HILLSBORO...MAPAVILLE...FESTUS AND 
CRYSTAL CITY.

LAT...LON 3818 9074 3805 9049 3816 9031 3833 9050

$$

BYRD

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 101914
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
214 PM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006

MOC099-101924-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0516.000000T0000Z-060910T1915Z/
JEFFERSON MO-
214 PM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY EXPIRES AT
215 PM CDT...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND NO LONGER 
APPEARED TO BE SEVERE. HOWEVER...EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL 
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE 
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY THROUGH 3 PM.

LAT...LON 3801 9061 3807 9060 3819 9077 3846 9073
      3844 9066 3849 9058 3849 9041 3844 9039
      3845 9035 3823 9037 3812 9026 3809 9030
      3810 9034 3804 9043

$$

BYRD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
101 PM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL IL BY MONDAY EVENING
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO
NORTHEAST TX. SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING.

LATEST LAPS DATA INDICATED CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT 1200 J/KG
ACROSS CENTRAL MO AND THE EASTERN OZARKS. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED IN THESE AREAS WITH LIS OF -3. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION
CONTINUED ACROSS NORTHWEST MO INTO IA THOUGH.

WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING ACROSS THE REGION AND SLOW
MOVING FRONT, WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND ONLY
MINOR CHANGES NEEDED.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROF DIGGING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. 850 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TEENS CELSIUS
SO EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE. AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...MAIN ITEM OF CONCERN IS TIMING OF PRECIP.
PRIMARILY EAST WEST ORIENTATED FRONT WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH IN
PLACE THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN UPPER LOW TO PUSH BOUNDARY THRU AREA
BEGINNING AROUND 12Z MONDAY. MOST PRECIP IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD
BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH RAIN AND SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...OVER SRN IA/NRN MO...AS WELL AS WRN MO WITH MAIN SYSTEM.
SO FOR TAF SITES...KUIN HAS BEST CHANCE OF PCPN IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH RWS BEGINNING AFTER 04Z...KCOU AFTER 06Z AND KSTL/KSUS
AFTER 10Z. AS FOR TRWS...FEEL THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER THE 12Z TIMEFRAME.

AS FOR CIGS...AC DECK TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO REGION...THOUGH
COULD SEE SOME BKN MVFR CIGS WITH CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...MVFR/IFR CONDS TO AFFECT TAF SITES WITH MAIN AREA OF
PCPN...AFTER 12Z.

BYRD

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
423 AM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-110930-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
423 AM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEMS APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON BOTH DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

BRITT