Severe Thunderstorm Warning 476, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 030547
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1245 AM CDT THU AUG 3 2006

MOC103-137-205-030555-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0476.000000T0000Z-060803T0545Z/
MONROE MO-SHELBY MO-KNOX MO-
1245 AM CDT THU AUG 3 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR KNOX...SHELBY AND MONROE
COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 1245 AM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO 
LONGER APPEARED TO BE SEVERE.

HOWEVER...WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE 
STORMS AS THEY PUSH OUT OF KNOX...SHELBY...AND MONROE COUNTIES AND 
INTO LEWIS...MARION...AND RALLS COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 4029 9238 3935 9233 3935 9176 3997 9197
      4030 9196

$$

TRUETT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1108 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHNGS TO GOING FCSTS WERE TO TWEEK POPS BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS.  CNVTV CLUSTER ROLLING INTO NW MO ATTM SHUD BGN TO APCH N
SECTIONS OF FA ARND 06Z...SO UNTIL THEN SCT OR CHC POPS SHUD
REFLECT THRT OVR MOST OF AREA. ORIGINALLY THOUGHT THAT STORMS THAT
FORMED OVR MID MO LT THIS AFTN WULD DSPT AFT SNST...BUT STORMS ARE
PERSISTING BTWN KSTL AND KCOU...PERHAPS AIDED BY A BIT OF THETA-E
ADV. ALSO...88D IMAGERY INDICATES OUTFLO BNDRY FROM CNTRL IL
STORMS PROPAGATING INTO OUR SW IL COUNTIES...WHICH MAY BRING A BIT
MORE OF A THRT TO AREAS NE OF KSTL OVR THE NXT FEW HRS.

CERTAINLY PRIMARY RAIN CHCS WL OCR AS CNVTN ROLLS INTO AREA AFT
06Z.  WITH K INDICES AT TOP AND DVN AOA 40 AND 20-25 KT LO LVL
FLOW FUELING STORMS...SEE NO REASON FOR THEM TO DSPT SO WENT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS OVR N AND ADDED THRT OF R+ AND STG WNDS AS WELL.

TRUETT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...MCS MOVG THRU NWRN MO ATTM. CONVECTIVE LINE
SHOULD PUSH THRU THE UIN AREA LT TGT. MOST OF THE TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD
PASS N OF COU LT TGT ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE SCT TSRA IN THE
COU AREA ON THE SRN END OF THE LINE AND ALNG OUTFLOW BNDRY PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE WND SHOULD SHIFT TO A W-NWLY DIRECTION IN
COU ARND 06Z AS THE OUTFLOW BNDRY CONTS PUSHING EWD. THE ACTUAL
CDFNT CURRENTLY EXTDS FM A WK SFC LOW OVR NERN IL SW THRU NRN MO
WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE OUTFLOW BNDRY JUST AHD OF THE LINE OF
CONVECTION. THIS CDFNT SHOULD MOVE SEWD THRU UIN ARND 09-12Z
THU...COU ARND 12-15Z THU...AND STL ARND 15-18Z THU. THE BEST
THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR AT THE UIN TAF SITE LT TGT AND
THU MRNG AS A WK SFC WV MOVES ALNG THE SEWD SAGGING CDFNT. SCT
CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY OCCUR IN THE COU AREA LT TGT AND THU MRNG
WITH THE BEST CHC OF TSRA IN THE STL AREA DURING THU AFTN. MOST OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE S AND SE OF STL AND SUS AFT 00Z FRI.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
731 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

ILZ095>097-MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036-041-042-047-048-050-031100-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOONE-BROWN-CALLAWAY-COLE-KNOX-LEWIS-MARION-
MONITEAU-MONROE-PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-SHELBY-
731 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...CENTRAL MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.  IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN SOME
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS.

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-098>102-MOZ049-051-052-059>065-
072>075-084-085-099-031100-
BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-
GREENE IL-IRON-JEFFERSON-JERSEY IL-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-
MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-
RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-ST CHARLES-ST CLAIR IL-ST FRANCOIS-ST LOUIS-
ST LOUIS CITY-STE GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
731 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...CENTRAL MISSOURI...EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.  A FEW OF THE
STORMS VERY LATE TONIGHT MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY VERY LATE TONIGHT.

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
942 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S EASLEY              38.77N 92.38W
08/02/2006                   BOONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 FOOT DIAMETER TREE BLOWN DOWN AND BLOCKING ROAD. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

TRUETT